Unit commitment with uncertainty

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Description
This dissertation carries out an inter-disciplinary research of operations research, statistics, power system engineering, and economics. Specifically, this dissertation focuses on a special power system scheduling problem, a unit commitment problem with uncertainty. This scheduling problem is a two-stage decision…

This dissertation carries out an inter-disciplinary research of operations research, statistics, power system engineering, and economics. Specifically, this dissertation focuses on a special power system scheduling problem, a unit commitment problem with uncertainty. This scheduling problem is a two-stage decision problem. In the first stage, system operator determines the binary commitment status (on or off) of generators in advance. In the second stage, after the realization of uncertainty, the system operator determines generation levels of the generators. The goal of this dissertation is to develop computationally-tractable methodologies and algorithms to solve large-scale unit commitment problems with uncertainty.

In the first part of this dissertation, two-stage models are studied to solve the problem. Two solution methods are studied and improved: stochastic programming and robust optimization. A scenario-based progressive hedging decomposition algorithm is applied. Several new hedging mechanisms and parameter selections rules are proposed and tested. A data-driven uncertainty set is proposed to improve the performance of robust optimization.

In the second part of this dissertation, a framework to reduce the two-stage stochastic program to a single-stage deterministic formulation is proposed. Most computation of the proposed approach can be done by offline studies. With the assistance of offline analysis, simulation, and data mining, the unit commitment problems with uncertainty can be solved efficiently.

Finally, the impacts of uncertainty on energy market prices are studied. A new component of locational marginal price, a marginal security component, which is the weighted shadow prices of the proposed security constraints, is proposed to better represent energy prices.
Date Created
2016
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Stochastic Optimization of Product-Machine Qualification in a Semiconductor Back-End Facility

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In order to process a product in a semiconductor back-end facility, a machine needs to be qualified, first by having product-specific software installed and then running test wafers through it to verify that the machine is capable of performing the…

In order to process a product in a semiconductor back-end facility, a machine needs to be qualified, first by having product-specific software installed and then running test wafers through it to verify that the machine is capable of performing the process correctly. In general, not all machines are qualified to process all products due to the high machine qualification cost and tool set availability. The machine qualification decision affects future capacity allocation in the facility and subsequently affects daily production schedules. To balance the tradeoff between current machine qualification costs and future potential backorder costs due to not enough machines qualified with uncertain demand, a stochastic product–machine qualification optimization model is proposed in this article. The L-shaped method and acceleration techniques are proposed to solve the stochastic model. Computational results are provided to show the necessity of the stochastic model and the performance of different solution methods.

Date Created
2015-07-03
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Fix-and-optimize heuristic and MP-based approaches for capacitated lot sizing problem with setup carryover, setup splitting and backlogging

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In this thesis, a single-level, multi-item capacitated lot sizing problem with setup carryover, setup splitting and backlogging is investigated. This problem is typically used in the tactical and operational planning stage, determining the optimal production quantities and sequencing for all…

In this thesis, a single-level, multi-item capacitated lot sizing problem with setup carryover, setup splitting and backlogging is investigated. This problem is typically used in the tactical and operational planning stage, determining the optimal production quantities and sequencing for all the products in the planning horizon. Although the capacitated lot sizing problems have been investigated with many different features from researchers, the simultaneous consideration of setup carryover and setup splitting is relatively new. This consideration is beneficial to reduce costs and produce feasible production schedule. Setup carryover allows the production setup to be continued between two adjacent periods without incurring extra setup costs and setup times. Setup splitting permits the setup to be partially finished in one period and continued in the next period, utilizing the capacity more efficiently and remove infeasibility of production schedule.

The main approaches are that first the simple plant location formulation is adopted to reformulate the original model. Furthermore, an extended formulation by redefining the idle period constraints is developed to make the formulation tighter. Then for the purpose of evaluating the solution quality from heuristic, three types of valid inequalities are added to the model. A fix-and-optimize heuristic with two-stage product decomposition and period decomposition strategies is proposed to solve the formulation. This generic heuristic solves a small portion of binary variables and all the continuous variables rapidly in each subproblem. In addition, the case with demand backlogging is also incorporated to demonstrate that making additional assumptions to the basic formulation does not require to completely altering the heuristic.

The contribution of this thesis includes several aspects: the computational results show the capability, flexibility and effectiveness of the approaches. The average optimality gap is 6% for data without backlogging and 8% for data with backlogging, respectively. In addition, when backlogging is not allowed, the performance of fix-and-optimize heuristic is stable regardless of period length. This gives advantage of using such approach to plan longer production schedule. Furthermore, the performance of the proposed solution approaches is analyzed so that later research on similar topics could compare the result with different solution strategies.
Date Created
2015
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Robust corrective topology control for system reliability and renewable integration

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Corrective transmission topology control schemes are an essential part of grid operations and are used to improve the reliability of the grid as well as the operational efficiency. However, topology control schemes are frequently established based on the operator's past…

Corrective transmission topology control schemes are an essential part of grid operations and are used to improve the reliability of the grid as well as the operational efficiency. However, topology control schemes are frequently established based on the operator's past knowledge of the system as well as other ad-hoc methods. This research presents robust corrective topology control, which is a transmission switching methodology used for system reliability as well as to facilitate renewable integration.

This research presents three topology control (corrective transmission switching) methodologies along with the detailed formulation of robust corrective switching. The robust model can be solved off-line to suggest switching actions that can be used in a dynamic security assessment tool in real-time. The proposed robust topology control algorithm can also generate multiple corrective switching actions for a particular contingency. The solution obtained from the robust topology control algorithm is guaranteed to be feasible for the entire uncertainty set, i.e., a range of system operating states.

Furthermore, this research extends the benefits of robust corrective topology control to renewable resource integration. In recent years, the penetration of renewable resources in electrical power systems has increased. These renewable resources add more complexities to power system operations, due to their intermittent nature. This research presents robust corrective topology control as a congestion management tool to manage power flows and the associated renewable uncertainty. The proposed day-ahead method determines the maximum uncertainty in renewable resources in terms of do-not-exceed limits combined with corrective topology control. The results obtained from the topology control algorithm are tested for system stability and AC feasibility.

The scalability of do-not-exceed limits problem, from a smaller test case to a realistic test case, is also addressed in this research. The do-not-exceed limit problem is simplified by proposing a zonal do-not-exceed limit formulation over a detailed nodal do-not-exceed limit formulation. The simulation results show that the zonal approach is capable of addressing scalability of the do-not-exceed limit problem for a realistic test case.
Date Created
2015
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Mathematical-based approaches for the semiconductor capital equipment installation and qualification scheduling problem

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Ramping up a semiconductor wafer fabrication facility is a challenging endeavor. One of the key components of this process is to schedule a large number of activities in installing and qualifying (Install/Qual) the capital intensive and sophisticated manufacturing equipment. Activities…

Ramping up a semiconductor wafer fabrication facility is a challenging endeavor. One of the key components of this process is to schedule a large number of activities in installing and qualifying (Install/Qual) the capital intensive and sophisticated manufacturing equipment. Activities in the Install/Qual process share multiple types of expensive and scare resources and each activity might potentially have multiple processing options. In this dissertation, the semiconductor capital equipment Install/Qual scheduling problem is modeled as a multi-mode resource-constrained project scheduling problem (MRCPSP) with multiple special extensions. Three phases of research are carried out: the first phase studies the special problem characteristics of the Install/Qual process, including multiple activity processing options, time-varying resource availability levels, resource vacations, and activity splitting that does not allow preemption. A modified precedence tree-based branch-and-bound algorithm is proposed to solve small size academic problem instances to optimality. Heuristic-based methodologies are the main focus of phase 2. Modified priority rule-based simple heuristics and a modified random key-based genetic algorithm (RKGA) are proposed to search for Install/Qual schedules with short makespans but subject to resource constraints. Methodologies are tested on both small and large random academic problem instances and instances that are similar to the actual Install/Qual process of a major semiconductor manufacturer. In phase 3, a decision making framework is proposed to strategically plan the Install/Qual capacity ramp. Product market demand, product market price, resource consumption cost, as well as the payment of capital equipment, are considered. A modified simulated annealing (SA) algorithm-based optimization module is integrated with a Monte Carlo simulation-based simulation module to search for good capacity ramping strategies under uncertain market information. The decision making framework can be used during the Install/Qual schedule planning phase as well as the Install/Qual schedule execution phase when there is a portion of equipment that has already been installed or qualified. Computational experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the decision making framework.
Date Created
2015
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Deterministic scheduling for transmission-constrained power systems amid uncertainty

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This research develops heuristics for scheduling electric power production amid uncertainty. Reliability is becoming more difficult to manage due to growing uncertainty from renewable resources. This challenge is compounded by the risk of resource outages, which can occur any time…

This research develops heuristics for scheduling electric power production amid uncertainty. Reliability is becoming more difficult to manage due to growing uncertainty from renewable resources. This challenge is compounded by the risk of resource outages, which can occur any time and without warning. Stochastic optimization is a promising tool but remains computationally intractable for large systems. The models used in industry instead schedule for the forecast and withhold generation reserve for scenario response, but they are blind to how this reserve may be constrained by network congestion. This dissertation investigates more effective heuristics to improve economics and reliability in power systems where congestion is a concern.

Two general approaches are developed. Both approximate the effects of recourse decisions without actually solving a stochastic model. The first approach procures more reserve whenever approximate recourse policies stress the transmission network. The second approach procures reserve at prime locations by generalizing the existing practice of reserve disqualification. The latter approach is applied for feasibility and is later extended to limit scenario costs. Testing demonstrates expected cost improvements around 0.5%-1.0% for the IEEE 73-bus test case, which can translate to millions of dollars per year even for modest systems. The heuristics developed in this dissertation perform somewhere between established deterministic and stochastic models: providing an economic benefit over current practices without substantially increasing computational times.
Date Created
2015
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Improving deterministic reserve requirements for security constrained unit commitment and scheduling problems in power systems

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Traditional deterministic reserve requirements rely on ad-hoc, rule of thumb methods to determine adequate reserve in order to ensure a reliable unit commitment. Since congestion and uncertainties exist in the system, both the quantity and the location of reserves are…

Traditional deterministic reserve requirements rely on ad-hoc, rule of thumb methods to determine adequate reserve in order to ensure a reliable unit commitment. Since congestion and uncertainties exist in the system, both the quantity and the location of reserves are essential to ensure system reliability and market efficiency. The modeling of operating reserves in the existing deterministic reserve requirements acquire the operating reserves on a zonal basis and do not fully capture the impact of congestion. The purpose of a reserve zone is to ensure that operating reserves are spread across the network. Operating reserves are shared inside each reserve zone, but intra-zonal congestion may block the deliverability of operating reserves within a zone. Thus, improving reserve policies such as reserve zones may improve the location and deliverability of reserve.

As more non-dispatchable renewable resources are integrated into the grid, it will become increasingly difficult to predict the transfer capabilities and the network congestion. At the same time, renewable resources require operators to acquire more operating reserves. With existing deterministic reserve requirements unable to ensure optimal reserve locations, the importance of reserve location and reserve deliverability will increase. While stochastic programming can be used to determine reserve by explicitly modelling uncertainties, there are still scalability as well as pricing issues. Therefore, new methods to improve existing deterministic reserve requirements are desired.

One key barrier of improving existing deterministic reserve requirements is its potential market impacts. A metric, quality of service, is proposed in this thesis to evaluate the price signal and market impacts of proposed hourly reserve zones.

Three main goals of this thesis are: 1) to develop a theoretical and mathematical model to better locate reserve while maintaining the deterministic unit commitment and economic dispatch structure, especially with the consideration of renewables, 2) to develop a market settlement scheme of proposed dynamic reserve policies such that the market efficiency is improved, 3) to evaluate the market impacts and price signal of the proposed dynamic reserve policies.
Date Created
2015
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Locational Reserve Disqualification for Distinct Scenarios

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Reserve requirements promote reliability by ensuring resources are available to rebalance the power system following random disturbances. However, reliability is not guaranteed when dispatch is limited by transmission constraints. In this work, we propose a modified form of reserve requirement…

Reserve requirements promote reliability by ensuring resources are available to rebalance the power system following random disturbances. However, reliability is not guaranteed when dispatch is limited by transmission constraints. In this work, we propose a modified form of reserve requirement that identifies response sets for distinct contingency scenarios. The approach disqualifies reserve from counting towards a particular scenario if transmission constraints are likely to render that reserve undeliverable. A decomposition algorithm for security-constrained unit commitment dynamically updates the response sets to address changing conditions. Testing on the RTS 96 test case demonstrates the approach applied in tandem with existing reserve policies to avoid situations where reserve is not deliverable due to transmission constraints. Operational implications of the proposed method are discussed.

Date Created
2015-01-01
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The application of Bayesian networks in system reliability

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In this paper, a literature review is presented on the application of Bayesian networks applied in system reliability analysis. It is shown that Bayesian networks have become a popular modeling framework for system reliability analysis due to the benefits that…

In this paper, a literature review is presented on the application of Bayesian networks applied in system reliability analysis. It is shown that Bayesian networks have become a popular modeling framework for system reliability analysis due to the benefits that Bayesian networks have the capability and flexibility to model complex systems, update the probability according to evidences and give a straightforward and compact graphical representation. Research on approaches for Bayesian network learning and inference are summarized. Two groups of models with multistate nodes were developed for scenarios from constant to continuous time to apply and contrast Bayesian networks with classical fault tree method. The expanded model discretized the continuous variables and provided failure related probability distribution over time.

Date Created
2014
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An investment planning model for a battery energy storage system: considering battery degradation effects

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Description
As global energy demand has dramatically increased and traditional fossil fuels will be depleted in the foreseeable future, clean and unlimited renewable energies are recognized as the future global energy challenge solution. Today, the power grid in U.S. is building…

As global energy demand has dramatically increased and traditional fossil fuels will be depleted in the foreseeable future, clean and unlimited renewable energies are recognized as the future global energy challenge solution. Today, the power grid in U.S. is building more and more renewable energies like wind and solar, while the electric power system faces new challenges from rapid growing percentage of wind and solar. Unlike combustion generators, intermittency and uncertainty are the inherent features of wind and solar. These features bring a big challenge to the stability of modern electric power grid, especially for a small scale power grid with wind and solar. In order to deal with the intermittency and uncertainty of wind and solar, energy storage systems are considered as one solution to mitigate the fluctuation of wind and solar by smoothing their power outputs. For many different types of energy storage systems, this thesis studied the operation of battery energy storage systems (BESS) in power systems and analyzed the benefits of the BESS. Unlike many researchers assuming fixed utilization patterns for BESS and calculating the benefits, this thesis found the BESS utilization patterns and benefits through an investment planning model. Furthermore, a cost is given for utilizing BESS and to find the best way of operating BESS rather than set an upper bound and a lower bound for BESS energy levels. Two planning models are proposed in this thesis and preliminary conclusions are derived from simulation results. This work is organized as below: chapter 1 briefly introduces the background of this research; chapter 2 gives an overview of previous related work in this area; the main work of this thesis is put in chapter 3 and chapter 4 contains the generic BESS model and the investment planning model; the following chapter 5 includes the simulation and results analysis of this research and chapter 6 provides the conclusions from chapter 5.
Date Created
2014
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