Over the last few hundred years, best practice in some fields of human action—e.g., the treatment of heart disease, the transportation of persons, goods, and messages, and the destruction of landscapes, structures, and lives—has become dramatically more effective. At the same time, best practice in other fields, e.g., the amelioration of poverty or the teaching of reading, writing, or math, has improved more slowly, if at all. I argue that practice and technology (“know-how”) can only improve rapidly under rather special conditions: that, at any given point in time, some fields are more “progressible” than others.I articulate a conceptual framework describing several characteristics of practice in a field that may facilitate rapid progress. These characteristics, while not fixed, tend to remain fairly stable for long periods of time. I argue that know-how can improve more quickly 1) when offline “vicarious trial” of variations in practice is feasible and useful; 2) when practice is formal and standardized; 3) when practice is substantially performed by artifacts rather than by humans; 4) when outcomes of variations in practice may be rapidly evaluated; 5) when goals of practice are consistently agreed upon; 6) when contexts and objects of practice may be treated as, or have been made, consistent for the purposes of intervention; 7) when components of task systems are not heavily interdependent; and 8) when labor is finely and sharply divided. I illustrate and elaborate this framework through comparative case studies on efforts to improve practice in three differentially “progressible” fields. I examine rapid improvement in a COVID-19 testing lab, inconsistent improvement in undergraduate algebra instruction, and ambiguous improvement in regional water modeling to support municipal water management. These cases indicate that my theory may inform judgments about the plausibility of rapid advance within a field of practice, absent disruptive change in methods or problem formulation. My theory may also shed light on which varieties of innovative effort may and may not foreseeably contribute to improving practice in a given field—more formal, theoretical, and context-independent work in high-progressibility domains, more tacit, grounded, and localized work in low-progressibility ones.

As one of the countries highly vulnerable to climate change, Nepal has developed climate adaptation policy objectives and integrated risk management strategies to avoid severe impacts from changing climatic conditions. The country has been developing local level adaptation initiatives to create synergy between the policy objectives at the higher levels and location-specific needs of communities. This dissertation analyzes how these initiatives have been shaped by the national and global level discourse on climate adaptation and how they translate into building resilience at the community level. More specifically, using the case of Nepal’s flagship adaptation programs - Local Adaptation Plans of Action (LAPA) and Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) - this dissertation seeks to understand institutional and technological innovations that contributed to the governance of climate adaptation initiatives in Nepal. Methodologically, this dissertation applies a mixed method. Quantitative data was collected by interviewing local level stakeholders using semi-structured questionnaires and from policy documents. The transcripts from the open-ended interviews with the regional and national level stakeholders form the basis for qualitative analysis. Overall, the findings from this dissertation reveal that most of the adaptation activities proposed by local communities were low cost, based on experiential learning, and could be implemented by mobilizing local resources. The case of LAPA shows that community-based adaptation activities are strongly connected to local development goals, revealing the synergy between adaptation policy objectives and development. Likewise, the case of CSA demonstrates how innovations, both technological and institutional, are fostered to co-produce locally specific knowledge required to adapt to changing climate. The collaborative efforts by different institutions operating at multiple levels for scaling CSA through the Climate Smart Village approach provide justification for working together to address the climate adaptation policy objectives. The findings of this dissertation also reveal that the distinction between local and scientific knowledge makes little sense at the community level as successful climate adaptation requires hybrid approaches. This dissertation makes a strong case to enhance the governance of adaptation initiatives through stronger collaboration between local to national and global actors.

Army Futures Command (AFC) has the implicit mission of ensuring that the Army does not get locked into a technology that might be ineffective in a future of competition and conflict. In this dissertation I develop insights and tools that can help assess and inform AFC’s efforts to understand and avoid undesirable technological lock-in. I started with three historical case studies of the interactions between technology and military strategy. The first examined the German Army’s strategic commitment to using railroads before World War I, forcing them into a military answer to rapidly increased diplomatic tensions in 1914. The second explored how the US Army Air Corps became locked into a doctrine of strategic bombing before World War II, affecting their ability to support ground troops during the Cold War. The third studied why the US Army was able to avoid becoming locked into a tactical nuclear doctrine in the 1950s, despite initial efforts to change Army structure and tactics to accommodate the nuclear battlefield. I identified three factors: 1) rapid changes in the strategic environment; 2) lack of civilian analogues to nuclear weapons; 3) the novelty of tactical nuclear technology, and availability of operational alternatives. The second part of my research sought to identify applicable theories from the fields of science, technology and society studies (STS). I identified five theories (technological systems, co-production, technological lock-in, path dependence, and economic growth theory), each with a brief case study. I sent my initial analysis to eighteen professionals at AFC and used their feedback to determine the utility of these theories for military planning. Finally, I analyzed AFC's current initiatives via semi-structured interviews, gaining insight into AFC's operations to identify three classes of issues that they face: complicated, exterior, and complex. Complicated issues are manageable through organizational methods. Exterior issues require planning to accommodate irreducible uncertainties (such as budgeting processes). Complex issues involved unpredictable interactions among technology and military strategy. I focused on three AFC programs, (artificial intelligence, robotics, and autonomous systems) demonstrating how STS theories can offer additional tools to help guide technological and strategic planning for an uncertain future.

For more than 100 years, the Unite States National Park Service (NPS) has been guided by a mandate to preserve parks and their resources for the enjoyment of present and future generations. But all parks are subject to conditions that may frustrate preservation efforts. Climate change is melting the glaciers. Rising seas are sweeping away protected shorelines. Development projects, accompanied by air, water, light, and noise pollution, edge closer to parks and fragment habitats. The number of visitors and vested interests are swelling and diversifying. Resources for preservation, such as funds and staff, seem to be continuously shrinking, at least relative to demand.

Still, the NPS remains committed to the preservation of our natural and cultural heritage. Yet the practice of that promise is evolving, slowly and iteratively, but detectably. Through explorations of legal and scholarly literature, as well as interviews across the government, non-profit, and academic sectors, I’ve tracked the evolution of preservation in parks. How is preservation shifting to address socio-ecological change? How has preservation evolved before? How should the NPS preserve parks moving forward?

The practice of preservation has come to rely on science, including partnerships with academic researchers, as well as inventory and monitoring programs. That shift has in part been guided by goals that have also become more informed by science, like ecological integrity. While some interviewees see science as a solution to the NPS’s challenges, others wonder how applying science can get “gnarly,” due to uncertainty, lack of clear policies, and the diversity of parks and resources. “Gnarly” questions stem in part from the complexity of the NPS as a socio-ecological system, as well as from disputed, normative concepts that underpin the broader philosophy of preservation, including naturalness. What’s natural in the context of pervasive anthropogenic change? Further, I describe how parks hold deep, sometimes conflicting, cultural and symbolic significance for their local and historical communities and for our nation. Understanding and considering those values is part of the gnarly task park managers face in their mission to preserve parks. I explain why this type of conceptual and values-based uncertainty cannot be reduced through science.

Each of the three essays in this dissertation examine an aspect of health or health care in society. Areas explored within this dissertation include health care as a public value, proscriptive genomic policies, and socio-technical futures of the human lifespan. The first essay explores different forms of health care systems and attempts to understand who believes access to health care is a public value. Using a survey of more than 2,000 U.S. citizens, this study presents statistically significant empirical evidence regarding values and other attributes that predict the probability of individuals within age-based cohorts identifying access to health care as a public value. In the second essay, a menu of policy recommendations for federal regulators is proposed in order to address the lack of uniformity in current state laws concerning genetic information. The policy recommendations consider genetic information as property, privacy protections for re-identifying de-identified genomic information, the establishment of guidelines for law enforcement agencies to access nonforensic databases in criminal investigations, and anti-piracy protections for individuals and their genetic information. The third and final essay explores the socio-technical artifacts of the current health care system for documenting both life and death to understand the potential for altering the future of insurance, the health care delivery system, and individual health outcomes. Through the development of a complex scenario, this essay explores the long-term socio-technical futures of implementing a technology that continuously collects and stores genetic, environmental, and social information from life to death of individual participants.

Wildfire is an inescapable feature of Canadian landscapes, burning an average of over two million hectares annually and causing significant repercussions for communities, infrastructure, and resources. Because fire is managed provincially, each jurisdiction has developed a distinctive approach to preparing for, responding to, and recovering from fire on its landscapes. Using a comparative study between seven provinces and four national agencies, this dissertation examines differences in institutional design and policy with respect to the knowledge management systems required to respond to wildfire: How do policies and procedures vary between jurisdictions, how do they affect the practices of each fire management agency, and how can they be improved through a critical analysis of the knowledge management systems in use? And, what is the role of and limits on expertise within these fire management institutions that manage high-risk, highly uncertain socio- environmental challenges?

I begin by introducing the 2016 Fort McMurray/Horse River fire as a lens for exploring these questions. I then use the past one hundred years of fire history in Canada to illustrate the continual presence of fire, its human and social dimensions, and the evolution of differing fire management regimes. Drawing on extended ethnographic observation and interviewing of fire managers across Canada, I examine the varied provincial systems of response through following an active fire day in Alberta. I analyze the decision support and geospatial information systems used to guide fire agency decision-making, as well as the factors that limit their effectiveness in both response and hazard reduction modes. I begin Part Two with a discussion of mutual aid arrangements between the provinces, and critically examine the core strategy – interagency fungibility – used to allow this exchange. I analyze forecasting and predictive models used in firefighting, with an emphasis on comparing advantages and disadvantages of attempts at predicting future firefighter capacity requirements. I review organizational learning approaches, considering both fire research strategies and after action reviews. Finally, I consider the implication of changes in climates, politics, and public behaviours and their impacts on fire management.

The Energiewende aims to drastically reduce Germany’s greenhouse gas emissions, without relying on nuclear power, while maintaining a secure and affordable energy supply. Since 2000 the country’s renewable-energy share has increased exponentially, accounting in 2017 for over a third of Germany's gross electricity consumption. This unprecedented achievement is the result of policies, tools, and institutional arrangements intended to steer society to a low-carbon economy. Despite its resounding success in renewable-energy deployment, the Energiewende is not on track to meet its decarbonization goals. Energiewende rules and regulations have generated numerous undesired consequences, and have cost much more than anticipated, a burden borne primarily by energy consumers. Why has the Energiewende not only made energy more expensive, but also failed to bring Germany closer to its decarbonization goals? I analyzed the Energiewende as a complex socio-technical system, examining its legal framework and analyzing the consequences of successive regulations; identifying major political and energy players and the factors that motivated them to pursue socio-technical change; and documenting the political trends and events in which the Energiewende is rooted and which continue to shape it. I analyzed the dynamics and the loopholes that created barriers to transition, pushed the utility sector to the brink of dissolution, and led to such undesirable outcomes as negative wholesale prices and forced exports of electricity to Germany’s European neighbors. Thirty high-level energy experts and stakeholders were interviewed to find out how the best-informed members of German society perceive the Energiewende. Surprisingly, although they were highly critical of the way the transition has unfolded, most were convinced that the transition would eventually succeed. But their definitions of success did not always depend on achieving carbon-mitigation targets. Indeed, Germany jeopardizes the achievement of these targets by changing too many policy and institutional variables at too fast a pace. Good intentions and commitment are not enough to create economies based on intermittent energy sources: they will also require intensive grid expansion and breakthroughs in storage technology. The Energiewende demonstrates starkly that collective action driven by robust political consensus is not sufficient for steering complex socio-technical systems in desired directions.

This thesis studies the 1998-2003 doubling of the National Institutes of Health budget to evaluate how assertions about the impact of research investments compare with actual health and research outcomes. Stakeholders in the doubling noted a variety of outcomes intended to result from the effort. Using public value mapping (Bozeman and Sarewitz, 2005), I have compared stakeholders' stated intentions of what the doubling ought to achieve with the health and research outcomes actually produced. In applying public value mapping, I first conducted interviews and reviewed press releases, Congressional record, news, and other data from the doubling period. Six public values were commonly represented in this data: (1) improving health outcomes (2) reducing the cost of healthcare (3) producing application-relevant knowledge (4) building biosecurity and biodefense capabilities (5) developing the research enterprise (6) economic growth I then inferred causal logic chains by which increasing funding could lead to achievement of the public values and identified four investment intermediaries through which funding would pass in advancing public values. Finally, using proxies, I evaluated if the public values had advanced in a way directly attributable to funding increases. This analysis identified (5) as achieved. (1), (3), (4), and (6) were indeterminate in one of the two components necessary for evaluating public value achievement: either no clear advancement or no direct link between outcomes and doubling investments. (2) was a failure due to the increase in healthcare costs throughout and following the doubling period. These results indicate that complex societal outcomes used to justify incremental research investments are challenging to causally attribute to those same investments, and thus uncertain premises on which to base policy.

This study addresses the question: is it possible for consumers to make informed decisions regarding their privacy, while using smartphones, in the face of the complex web of actors, incentives, and conveniences afforded by the technology? To address this question, the Social Construction of Technology (SCOT) model is used to analyze common situations consumers find themselves engaged in. Using the SCOT model, relevant actors are identified; their interpretations of various technologies are expressed; relative power is discussed; and possible directions for closure are examined. This analysis takes place by looking at three specific themes within privacy disputes in general: anonymity, confidentiality, and surveillance. These themes are compared and contrasted in regards to their impact on perception of privacy and implications for closure. Arguments are supported through evidence drawn from scholarship on the topic as well as industry and news media. Conclusions are supported through the framework of anticipatory governance.

Principle-based ethical frameworks, which commonly make use of codes of ethics, have come to be the popular approach in guiding ethical behavior within scientific research. In this thesis project, I investigate the benefits and shortcomings of this approach, ultimately to argue that codes of ethics are valuable as an exercise in developing a reconciled value profile for a given research community, and also function well as an internal and external proclamation of values and norms. However, this approach results in technical adherence, at best, and given the extent to which scientific research now irreversibly shapes our experience as human beings, I argue for the importance of cultivating ethical virtues in scientific research. In the interest of doing so I explore concepts from Aristotelian virtue ethics, to consider how to ameliorate the shortcomings of principle-based approaches. This project was inspired by a call to research and develop an ethical framework upon which to found a cooperative research network that would be aimed at combating the spread of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases in resource-restricted countries, specifically throughout Latin America. The desire to found this network on an ethics-based framework is to move beyond technical compliance and cultivate a research community committed to integrity, therefore establishing and maintaining trust and communication that will allow for unprecedented productive collaboration and meaningful outcomes. I demonstrate in this thesis that this requires more than a code of ethics, and use this initiative as a case study to exhibit the merit of integrating concepts from virtue ethics.