Infrastructure managers are continually challenged to reorient their organizations to mitigate disturbances. Disturbances to infrastructure constantly intensify, and the world and its intricate systems are becoming more connected and complex. This complexity often leads to disturbances and cascading failures. Some of these events unfold in extreme ways previously unimagined (i.e., Black Swan events). Infrastructure managers currently seek pathways through this complexity. To this end, reimagined – multifaceted – definitions of resilience must inform future decisions. Moreover, the hazardous environment of the Anthropocene demands flexibility and dynamic reprioritization of infrastructure and resources during disturbances. In this dissertation, the introduction will briefly explain foundational concepts, frameworks, and models that will inform the rest of this work. Chapter 2 investigates the concept of dynamic criticality: the skill to reprioritize amidst disturbances, repeating this process with each new disturbance. There is a dearth of insight requisite skillsets for infrastructure organizations to attain dynamic criticality. Therefore, this dissertation searches other industries and finds goals, structures, sensemaking, and strategic best practices to propose a contextualized framework for infrastructure. Chapters 3 and 4 seek insight into modeling infrastructure interdependencies and cascading failure to elucidate extreme outcomes such as Black Swans. Chapter 3 explores this concept through a theoretical analysis considering the use of realistic but fictional (i.e., synthetic) models to simulate interdependent behavior and cascading failures. This chapter also discusses potential uses of synthetic networks for infrastructure resilience research and barriers to future success. Chapter 4 tests the preceding theoretical analysis with an empirical study. Chapter 4 builds realistic networks with dependency between power and water models and simulates cascading failure. The discussion considers the future application of similar modeling efforts and how these techniques can help infrastructure managers scan the horizon for Black Swans. Finally, Chapter 5 concludes the dissertation with a synthesis of the findings from the previous chapters, discusses the boundaries and limitations, and proposes inspirations for future work.

Crises at Teton Dam in 1976, Roosevelt Dam in 1980, Tempe Town Lake Dam in 2010, Oroville Dam in 2017, and the Edenville and Sanford Dams in 2020 prove the substantial and continuing threats to communities posed by major dams. Sociotechnical systems of dams encompass both social or governance characteristics as well as the technical or architectural characteristics. To reduce or overcome chances of failure, experts traditionally focus on making the architectural characteristics of dams safe from potential modes of failure. However, governance characteristics such as laws, building codes, and emergency actions plans also affect the ability of systems of dams that include downstream communities to sustainably adapt to crises. Increasingly, emerging threats such as climate change, earthquakes, terrorism, cyberattacks, or wildfires worsen known modes of failure such as overtopping.Considering these emerging threats, my research assesses whether the architectural and governance characteristics of the aging population of systems of dams in the United States can sustainably adapt to challenges posed by emerging threats. First, by analyzing architectural characteristics of dams, my research provides a useful definition of infrastructures of dams. Next, to assess the governance characteristics of dams, I review institutional documents to heuristically outline seven sociotechnical imaginaries and assess whether an eighth based on resilience is appearing. Further, by analyzing interview transcripts and professional conference presentations, and by conducting case studies, my research reveals ways that experts and stakeholders assess the safety and resilience of systems of dams. The combined findings of these studies suggest that experts and stakeholders are not sufficiently informed about or focused upon important aspects of the resilience of dams. Therefore, they may not be able to sustainably adapt to crises caused or worsened by emerging threats such as climate change, earthquakes, terrorism, cyberattacks, or wildfires. I offer explanations of why this is so and formulate recommendations.

This thesis examines the composition, flow rate, and recyclability of two abundant materials generated in modern society: municipal sewage sludge (SS) generated during conventional wastewater treatment, and single-use plastic packaging (specifically, plastic bottles) manufactured and dispersed by fast-moving consumer goods companies (FMCG). The study found the presence of 5 precious metals in both American and Chinese sewage sludges. 13 rare elements were found in American sewage sludge while 14 were found in Chinese sewage sludge. Modeling results indicated 251 to 282 million metric tons (MMT) of SS from 2022 to 2050, estimated to contain some 6.8 ± 0.5 MMT of valuable elements in the USA, the reclamation of which is valued at $24B ± $1.6B USD. China is predicted to produce between 819 - 910 MMT of SS between 2022 and 2050 containing an estimated 14.9 ± 1.7 MMT of valuable elements worth a cumulative amount of $94B ± 20B (Chapter 2 and 3). The 4th chapter modeled how much plastic waste Coca-Cola, PespiCo and Nestlé produced and globally dispersed in 21 years: namely an estimated 126 MMT ± 8.7 MMT of plastic. Some 15.6 MMT ± 1.3 MMT (12%) is projected to have become aquatic pollution costing estimated at $286B USD. Some 58 ± 5 MMT or 46% of the total mass were estimated to result in terrestrial plastic pollution, with only minor amounts of 9.9 ± 0.7 MMT, deemed actually recycled. Absent of change, the three companies are predicted to generate an additional 330 ± 15 MMT of plastic by 2050, thereby creating estimated externalities of $8 ± 0.4 trillion USD. The analysis suggests that a small subset of FMCG companies are well positioned to change the current trajectory of global plastic pollution and ocean plastic littering. Chapter 5 examined the barriers to Circular Economy. In an increasingly uncertain post pandemic world, it is becoming progressively important to conserve local resources and extract value from materials that are currently interpreted a “waste” rather than a current or potential future resource.

Army Futures Command (AFC) has the implicit mission of ensuring that the Army does not get locked into a technology that might be ineffective in a future of competition and conflict. In this dissertation I develop insights and tools that can help assess and inform AFC’s efforts to understand and avoid undesirable technological lock-in. I started with three historical case studies of the interactions between technology and military strategy. The first examined the German Army’s strategic commitment to using railroads before World War I, forcing them into a military answer to rapidly increased diplomatic tensions in 1914. The second explored how the US Army Air Corps became locked into a doctrine of strategic bombing before World War II, affecting their ability to support ground troops during the Cold War. The third studied why the US Army was able to avoid becoming locked into a tactical nuclear doctrine in the 1950s, despite initial efforts to change Army structure and tactics to accommodate the nuclear battlefield. I identified three factors: 1) rapid changes in the strategic environment; 2) lack of civilian analogues to nuclear weapons; 3) the novelty of tactical nuclear technology, and availability of operational alternatives. The second part of my research sought to identify applicable theories from the fields of science, technology and society studies (STS). I identified five theories (technological systems, co-production, technological lock-in, path dependence, and economic growth theory), each with a brief case study. I sent my initial analysis to eighteen professionals at AFC and used their feedback to determine the utility of these theories for military planning. Finally, I analyzed AFC's current initiatives via semi-structured interviews, gaining insight into AFC's operations to identify three classes of issues that they face: complicated, exterior, and complex. Complicated issues are manageable through organizational methods. Exterior issues require planning to accommodate irreducible uncertainties (such as budgeting processes). Complex issues involved unpredictable interactions among technology and military strategy. I focused on three AFC programs, (artificial intelligence, robotics, and autonomous systems) demonstrating how STS theories can offer additional tools to help guide technological and strategic planning for an uncertain future.

Existing models of military innovation assume general resistance to change within militaries that necessitates an outside influence to induce military innovation. Within these approaches, the complex relationship between technology and innovation is normally addressed by either minimizing the importance of technology or separating it from the social process of innovation. Yet these approaches struggle to reflect emerging dynamics between technology and military innovation, and as a result, potentially contribute to wasted national resources and unnecessarily bloody wars. Reframing the relationship between technology and military innovation can provide novel insights into the apparent inability of militaries to align technology with strategic goals and inform more effective future alignment. This dissertation leverages the insights of constructivist science and technology studies concepts to develop a novel model of military innovation: referred to here as the technology triad. The technology triad describes military sociotechnical systems in a way that highlights change and innovation within militaries. The model describes how doctrine, materiel, and “martial knowledge,” a new concept that relates to socially constructed truths about the conduct of war, interact to produce change and innovation within militaries. After constructing the model and exploring an in-depth application to the development of armored warfare in the United States Army prior to World War II, the case from which the model was developed, the dissertation explores the logical extension of the technology triad to establish a deductive framework against which to test the generalizability of the model. Nuclear weapons innovation in the United States military through the end of the Vietnam War provides a test of the model at the strategic level, and the development and employment of armed drones in the United States, Russia, Israel, and Azerbaijan provide a test of a contemporary innovation for the technology triad. Together, these three cases demonstrate that framing the relationship between technology and military innovation in terms of the technology triad can inform concrete actions that military leaders can take related to the types of technologies that are most likely to be useful in future conflicts and ways to manage military innovations to increase opportunities to achieve strategic objectives.

Raising future generations is a culturally diverse, universally technological human project. This research brought the everyday work of raising children into the domain of sustainability scholarship, by first proposing a model of childrearing as a globally distributed socio-technical system, and then exploring the model with participants in two nodes – an elementary and middle school, and a children’s museum. In the process, the research objective shifted towards using methods that were less academic and more relevant to childrearing agents. The focus on participatory survey data was abandoned, in favor of autoethnographic documentation of a long-term engagement with a third node of the system, a child welfare setting. This approach yielded unexpected findings that fit the proposed model, identified characteristics of a Zone of Mutual Oblivion (ZMO) that exists between childrearing and sustainability, and clarified ways in which people prioritize their own needs and responsibilities, the developmental needs of children, the potential needs and capacities of future generations, and the functional integrity of ecological systems.

Public awareness of nature and environmental issues has grown in the last decades and zoos have successfully followed suit by re-branding themselves as key representatives for conservation. However, considering the fast rate of environmental degradation, in the near future, zoos may become the only place left for wildlife. Some scholars argue that we have entered a new epoch titled the “Anthropocene” that postulates the idea that untouched pristine nature is almost nowhere to be found. Many scientists and scholars argue that it is time that we embraced this environmental situation and anticipated the change. Clearly, the impact of urbanization is reaching into the wild, so how can we design for animals in our artificializing world? Using the Manoa School method that argues that every future includes these four, generic, alternatives: growth, discipline, collapse, and transformation , this dissertation explores possible future animal archetypes by considering multiple possibilities of post zoo design.

There are two main motivations for conducting this analysis. The first motivation is to understand the Social Credit System (SCS) itself: what it is, why it’s being developed, and what implications it may have for China and the rest of the world. The Social Credit System is a novel idea—it’s the first ever use of AI and machine learning technology by a government for the purposes of social engineering. The long-term consequences of this technology will have a monumental impact on the Chinese peoples’ well-being. Potential implications of the system range from impacts on privacy and activism to whether other countries are inspired to develop a similar technology. There are also many different implementations for this system, each with its own outcome. This system is a consequence of the increasing capabilities of technology and an experimental approach influenced heavily by China’s culture and history, which leads to the second motivation.
Confucianism’s historical influence on China’s culture has made the Social Credit System seem like a good solution to many of China’s major societal problems. As such, the second motivation is to evaluate the impact Confucianism has on the development of the system; this involves understanding what Confucianism is, identifying parallels between it and the SCS, and analyzing how it may affect the Chinese people reaction to a full-fledged SCS. Understanding Confucianism may also illuminate why the government believes this is a good idea, what direction it may want to take this, and what boundaries, if any, the Chinese citizens have. We chose to analyze the SCS from a Confucian perspective because it has played a large role in influencing Chinese culture and history for over 2000 years. The Chinese people have been especially drawn to it in recent years due to increasing corruption, increasing inequality, decreasing trust, and increased social instability.
Although Confucianism may have a significant influence on the development of the SCS, there are also other influences in the mix. One of these influences is China’s AI competition with the US; relaxing privacy protections has given China an enormous amount of data to feed its AI. This system is also another avenue for China to develop their algorithms. There are also the motivations of the Communist party of China. These motivations include market reform, governmental reform, authoritarian interests and bureaucratic interests.

Infrastructure are increasingly being recognized as too rigid to quickly adapt to a changing climate and a non-stationary future. This rigidness poses risks to and impacts on infrastructure service delivery and public welfare. Adaptivity in infrastructure is critical for managing uncertainties to continue providing services, yet little is known about how infrastructure can be made more agile and flexible towards improved adaptive capacity. A literature review identified approximately fifty examples of novel infrastructure and technologies which support adaptivity through one or more of ten theoretical competencies of adaptive infrastructure. From these examples emerged several infrastructure forms and possible strategies for adaptivity, including smart technologies, combined centralized/decentralized organizational structures, and renewable electricity generation. With institutional and cultural support, such novel structures and systems have the potential to transform infrastructure provision and management.

The Internet and climate change are two forces that are poised to both cause and enable changes in how we provide our energy infrastructure. The Internet has catalyzed enormous changes across many sectors by shifting the feedback and organizational structure of systems towards more decentralized users. Today’s energy systems require colossal shifts toward a more sustainable future. However, energy systems face enormous socio-technical lock-in and, thus far, have been largely unaffected by these destabilizing forces. More distributed information offers not only the ability to craft new markets, but to accelerate learning processes that respond to emerging user or prosumer centered design needs. This may include values and needs such as local reliability, transparency and accountability, integration into the built environment, and reduction of local pollution challenges.

The same institutions (rules, norms and strategies) that dominated with the hierarchical infrastructure system of the twentieth century are unlikely to be good fit if a more distributed infrastructure increases in dominance. As information is produced at more distributed points, it is more difficult to coordinate and manage as an interconnected system. This research examines several aspects of these, historically dominant, infrastructure provisioning strategies to understand the implications of managing more distributed information. The first chapter experimentally examines information search and sharing strategies under different information protection rules. The second and third chapters focus on strategies to model and compare distributed energy production effects on shared electricity grid infrastructure. Finally, the fourth chapter dives into the literature of co-production, and explores connections between concepts in co-production and modularity (an engineering approach to information encapsulation) using the distributed energy resource regulations for San Diego, CA. Each of these sections highlights different aspects of how information rules offer a design space to enable a more adaptive, innovative and sustainable energy system that can more easily react to the shocks of the twenty-first century.