Assessing the Resilience of Dams to Unexpected Events and Emerging Threats

Crises at Teton Dam in 1976, Roosevelt Dam in 1980, Tempe Town Lake Dam in 2010, Oroville Dam in 2017, and the Edenville and Sanford Dams in 2020 prove the substantial and continuing threats to communities posed by major dams. Sociotechnical systems of dams encompass both social or governance characteristics as well as the technical or architectural characteristics. To reduce or overcome chances of failure, experts traditionally focus on making the architectural characteristics of dams safe from potential modes of failure. However, governance characteristics such as laws, building codes, and emergency actions plans also affect the ability of systems of dams that include downstream communities to sustainably adapt to crises. Increasingly, emerging threats such as climate change, earthquakes, terrorism, cyberattacks, or wildfires worsen known modes of failure such as overtopping.Considering these emerging threats, my research assesses whether the architectural and governance characteristics of the aging population of systems of dams in the United States can sustainably adapt to challenges posed by emerging threats. First, by analyzing architectural characteristics of dams, my research provides a useful definition of infrastructures of dams. Next, to assess the governance characteristics of dams, I review institutional documents to heuristically outline seven sociotechnical imaginaries and assess whether an eighth based on resilience is appearing. Further, by analyzing interview transcripts and professional conference presentations, and by conducting case studies, my research reveals ways that experts and stakeholders assess the safety and resilience of systems of dams. The combined findings of these studies suggest that experts and stakeholders are not sufficiently informed about or focused upon important aspects of the resilience of dams. Therefore, they may not be able to sustainably adapt to crises caused or worsened by emerging threats such as climate change, earthquakes, terrorism, cyberattacks, or wildfires. I offer explanations of why this is so and formulate recommendations.