The purpose of this study was to examine if certain child demographics and risk modifiers of the child (i.e., anxiety sensitivity, depressive symptoms, anxiety control, and social competence) predict program response to a Child Anxiety Indicated Prevention and Early Intervention protocol (Pina, Zerr, Villalta, & Gonzales, 2012). This anxiety protocol focused on cognitive behavioral techniques (e.g., systematic and gradual exposure) that used culturally responsive implementation strategies (Pina, Villalta, & Zerr, 2009). The current study aims to investigate specific predictors of program response to this anxiety protocol. First, it was of interest to determine if child demographics and risk modifiers of the child at baseline would predict program response to the early anxiety intervention protocol. Second, it was of interest to see if an interaction with one of the four risk modifiers at baseline and sex or protocol condition would predict program response to the early anxiety intervention protocol. This study included 88 youth (59.14% Hispanic/Latino and 40.9% Caucasian) who were recruited through referrals from public schools and randomized to one of two protocol conditions (i.e., child-only or the child-plus-parent protocol), which had varying levels of mothers’ participation within the Child Anxiety Indicated Prevention and Early Intervention protocol (Pina et al., 2012). Participants ranged from 6 to 17 years of age (M = 10.36, SD = 2.73), and 48.9% were boys. The four risk modifiers were assessed using the Childhood Anxiety Sensitivity Index (CASI; Silverman, Fleisig, Rabian, & Peterson, 1991), Children's Depression Inventory (CDI; Kovacs, 1981), Anxiety Control Questionnaire for Children-Short Form (ACQ-C-S; Weems, 2005), and Social Competence scale from the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL; Achenbach & Resorla, 2001). Program response was measured by pre-to-posttest changes in anxiety outcomes. Regarding the first aim, each of the four risk modifiers was related to pre-to-posttest changes in program response outcomes. Regarding the second aim for interactions between each of the four focal predictors, sex and protocol condition emerged as moderators. These results have potential implications for clinicians and researchers interested in understanding why some children might experience more or less change when participating in an early intervention protocol for anxiety.

Pediatric obesity is a public health concern due to its elevated prevalence rates and its relation to concurrent and long-term physical and psychosocial consequences. Pediatric obesity has been found to be associated with problem behaviors, albeit with inconsistent findings. The mechanism of this relation is unclear. It is possible that they have a shared etiology. Self-regulation and parenting practices are two factors that have been implicated in the development of problem behaviors and are garnering evidence for their relation with pediatric obesity. The goal of the present study was to examine whether self-regulation (SREC), positive behavior support (PBSEC), and coercive limit-setting (CLSEC) in early childhood are shared etiological factors of pediatric obesity and problem behaviors. Using multinomial logistic regression the likelihood of belonging to four outcome groups (Comorbid, Problem behavior only, Overweight only, and Typically developing) at age 10 based on these factors was assessed. Analyses controlled for intervention group assignment, child gender, child African-American or Bi-racial, child Hispanic, cumulative risk, child body size impression at age 2, and parent body size impression at baseline. In the models examining SREC alone, for every 1 standard deviation increase in SREC, there was a reliable reduction in the odds of the child belonging to the comorbid and problem behavior only groups at age 10, compared to the typically developing group (OR = 0.386, 95% CI [0.237, 0.628], OR = 0.281, 95% CI [0.157, 0.503], respectively). This relation was maintained when SREC was in the same model as PBSEC and CLSEC. PBSEC and CLSEC alone did not impact the likelihood of belonging to any of the outcome groups. A significant interaction was found between SREC and CLSEC, such that at high levels of both SREC and CLSEC the odds of a child belonging to the overweight only group at age 10 increased, compared to the typically developing group. Results highlight CLSEC as a parenting practice that may place a highly regulated child at risk for becoming overweight. Overall, the findings suggest that problem behaviors and pediatric obesity do not have a shared etiology.

Adolescent substance use carries a considerable public health burden, and early initiation into use is especially problematic. Research has shown that sensation seeking traits increase risk for substance use experimentation, but less is known about individual and contextual factors that can potentially protect against this risk. This study utilized a longitudinal sub sample of youth (N=567) from a larger study of familial alcoholism to examine sensation seeking in early adolescence (ages 10-15) and its relations to later substance use experimentation. Hypotheses tested whether individual executive control, parenting consistency, neighborhood disadvantage, and neighborhood ethnic concentration moderated sensation seeking’s effects on substance use experimentation using multilevel zero-inflated Poisson modeling. Across models, higher levels of sensation seeking were predictive of a higher likelihood of having initiated substance use, but sensation seeking was not significantly related to the number of different substance use classes tried. Only neighborhood disadvantage emerged as a significant moderator of the path from sensation seeking to substance use initiation. The strength of sensation seeking effects on substance use initiation increased as neighborhood disadvantage decreased below average levels, with the most advantaged neighborhoods exhibiting the strongest link between sensation seeking and substance use. There was also a trend towards the most disadvantaged neighborhoods exhibiting increased sensation seeking effects on substance use initiation. These results highlight the importance of focusing on relatively more advantaged areas as potentially risky environments for the externalizing pathway to substance use.

Although models for describing longitudinal data have become increasingly sophisticated, the criticism of even foundational growth curve models remains challenging. The challenge arises from the need to disentangle data-model misfit at multiple and interrelated levels of analysis. Using posterior predictive model checking (PPMC)—a popular Bayesian framework for model criticism—the performance of several discrepancy functions was investigated in a Monte Carlo simulation study. The discrepancy functions of interest included two types of conditional concordance correlation (CCC) functions, two types of R2 functions, two types of standardized generalized dimensionality discrepancy (SGDDM) functions, the likelihood ratio (LR), and the likelihood ratio difference test (LRT). Key outcomes included effect sizes of the design factors on the realized values of discrepancy functions, distributions of posterior predictive p-values (PPP-values), and the proportion of extreme PPP-values.

In terms of the realized values, the behavior of the CCC and R2 functions were generally consistent with prior research. However, as diagnostics, these functions were extremely conservative even when some aspect of the data was unaccounted for. In contrast, the conditional SGDDM (SGDDMC), LR, and LRT were generally sensitive to the underspecifications investigated in this work on all outcomes considered. Although the proportions of extreme PPP-values for these functions tended to increase in null situations for non-normal data, this behavior may have reflected the true misfit that resulted from the specification of normal prior distributions. Importantly, the LR and the SGDDMC to a greater extent exhibited some potential for untangling the sources of data-model misfit. Owing to connections of growth curve models to the more fundamental frameworks of multilevel modeling, structural equation models with a mean structure, and Bayesian hierarchical models, the results of the current work may have broader implications that warrant further research.

Methods to test hypotheses of mediated effects in the pretest-posttest control group design are understudied in the behavioral sciences (MacKinnon, 2008). Because many studies aim to answer questions about mediating processes in the pretest-posttest control group design, there is a need to determine which model is most appropriate to test hypotheses about mediating processes and what happens to estimates of the mediated effect when model assumptions are violated in this design. The goal of this project was to outline estimator characteristics of four longitudinal mediation models and the cross-sectional mediation model. Models were compared on type 1 error rates, statistical power, accuracy of confidence interval coverage, and bias of parameter estimates. Four traditional longitudinal models and the cross-sectional model were assessed. The four longitudinal models were analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) using pretest scores as a covariate, path analysis, difference scores, and residualized change scores. A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to evaluate the different models across a wide range of sample sizes and effect sizes. All models performed well in terms of type 1 error rates and the ANCOVA and path analysis models performed best in terms of bias and empirical power. The difference score, residualized change score, and cross-sectional models all performed well given certain conditions held about the pretest measures. These conditions and future directions are discussed.

Objective: Although the adverse effects of chronic pain on work productivity and daily life pursuits are clear, the within-person dynamics of pain, goal cognition, and engagement in work-related and lifestyle goals remain uncharted. This study investigated the impact of pain intensity (assessed on 3 occasions each day) and goal-related schematic thinking (ratings of importance, planning, and goal pursuit opportunities, assessed only in the morning) on afternoon and evening work and lifestyle goal pursuit.

Methods: A community sample of working adults with chronic pain (N = 131) were screened and interviewed about their work and lifestyle goals and completed a 21-day telephonic diary. Hierarchical linear modeling was used to estimate within-person and between-person effects.

Results: At the within-person level, morning pain intensity was inversely related to schematic cognition concerning work and lifestyle goals, whereas, at the between-person level, morning pain intensity varied positively with schematic thinking about work goals as well with afternoon lifestyle goal pursuit. At both the between- and within- analytic levels, morning goal schemas were positively associated with the pursuit of each type of goal in the afternoon and again in the evening. Moreover, positive carry-over effects of morning goal schemas on next day afternoon goal pursuit were observed.

Conclusions: Whereas morning pain intensity exhibited inconsistent effects across analytic levels, morning goal-related schematic thinking consistently predicted goal pursuit across analytic levels, type of goal, and time of day. These findings have implications for treatment and prevention of pain’s potentially deleterious effects on workplace and lifestyle goals.

Maternal intrusiveness is an important predictor of child mental health problems. Evidence links high levels of maternal intrusiveness to later infant negativity, and child internalizing problems. However, children also influence the manner in which parents interact with them. For example, infants that show more negative emotionality elicit less positive parenting in their caregivers. Infant affect is also associated with later child internalizing difficulties. Although previous research has demonstrated that maternal intrusiveness is related to infant affect and child internalizing symptomatology, and that infant affect is a predictor of internalizing problems and parenting, no studies have looked at the transactional relations between early maternal intrusiveness and infant affect, and whether these relations in infancy predict later childhood internalizing symptomatology. The present study investigates young children's risk for internalizing problems as a function of the interplay between maternal intrusiveness and infant affect during the early infancy period in a low-income, Mexican-American sample. Participants included 323 Mexican-American women and their infants. Data were collected when the infants were 12, 18, 24, and 52 weeks old. Mothers were asked to interact with their infants in semi-structured tasks, and mother and infant behaviors were coded at 12, 18, and 24 weeks. Maternal intrusiveness was globally rated, and duration of infant negative- and positive affect was recorded. Mother reports of child Internalizing symptomatology were obtained at 52 weeks. Findings suggest that there are transactional relations between early maternal intrusiveness and infant negative affect, while the relations between infant positive affect and maternal intrusiveness are unidirectional, in that infant positivity influences parenting but not vice versa. Further, findings also imply that neither maternal intrusiveness, nor infant affect, influence later toddler internalizing symptomatology. Identifying risk processes in a Mexican-American sample adds to our understanding of emerging infant difficulties in this population, and may have implications for early interventions.

Research methods based on the frequentist philosophy use prior information in a priori power calculations and when determining the necessary sample size for the detection of an effect, but not in statistical analyses. Bayesian methods incorporate prior knowledge into the statistical analysis in the form of a prior distribution. When prior information about a relationship is available, the estimates obtained could differ drastically depending on the choice of Bayesian or frequentist method. Study 1 in this project compared the performance of five methods for obtaining interval estimates of the mediated effect in terms of coverage, Type I error rate, empirical power, interval imbalance, and interval width at N = 20, 40, 60, 100 and 500. In Study 1, Bayesian methods with informative prior distributions performed almost identically to Bayesian methods with diffuse prior distributions, and had more power than normal theory confidence limits, lower Type I error rates than the percentile bootstrap, and coverage, interval width, and imbalance comparable to normal theory, percentile bootstrap, and the bias-corrected bootstrap confidence limits. Study 2 evaluated if a Bayesian method with true parameter values as prior information outperforms the other methods. The findings indicate that with true values of parameters as the prior information, Bayesian credibility intervals with informative prior distributions have more power, less imbalance, and narrower intervals than Bayesian credibility intervals with diffuse prior distributions, normal theory, percentile bootstrap, and bias-corrected bootstrap confidence limits. Study 3 examined how much power increases when increasing the precision of the prior distribution by a factor of ten for either the action or the conceptual path in mediation analysis. Power generally increases with increases in precision but there are many sample size and parameter value combinations where precision increases by a factor of 10 do not lead to substantial increases in power.

Externalizing behaviors are pervasive, widespread, and disruptive across a multitude of settings and developmental contexts. While the conventional diathesis-stress model typically measures the disordered end of the spectrum, studies that span the range of behavior, from externalizing to competence behaviors, are necessary to see the full picture. To that end, this study examined the additive and nonadditive relations of a dimension of parenting (ranging from warm to rejecting), and variants in dopamine, vasopressin, and neuropeptide-y receptor genes on externalizing/competence in a large sample of predominantly Caucasian twin children in toddlerhood, middle childhood, and early adolescence. Variants within each gene were hypothesized to increase biological susceptibility to both negative and positive environments. Consistent with prediction, warmth related to lower externalizing/higher competence at all ages. Earlier levels of externalizing/competence washed out the effect of parental warmth on future externalizing/competence with the exception of father warmth in toddlerhood marginally predicting change in externalizing/competence from toddlerhood to middle childhood. Warmth was a significant moderator of the heritability of behavior in middle childhood and early adolescence such that behavior was less heritable (mother report) and more heritable (father report) in low warmth environments. Interactions with warmth and the dopamine and vasopressin genes in middle childhood and early adolescence emphasize the moderational role gene variants play in relations between the rearing environment and child behavior. For dopamine, the long variant related to increased sensitivity to parent warmth such that the children displayed more externalizing behaviors when exposed to rejection but they also displayed more competence behaviors when exposed to high warmth. Vasopressin moderation was only present under conditions of parental warmth, not rejection. Interactions with neuropeptide-y and warmth were not significant. The picture that emerges is one of gene-environment interplay, wherein the influence of both parenting and child genotype each depend on the level of the other. As genetic research moves forward, gene variants previously implicated as conferring risk for disorder should be reexamined in conjunction with salient aspects of the environment on the full range of the behavioral outcome of interest.