This dissertation consists in two chapters. In the first chapter I collected and digitized historical tax records from the Spanish colonial regime in Ecuador to estimate the long-run effects of a forced labor institution called concertaje on today’s economic performance. This institution allowed landlords to retain indigenous workers due to unpaid debts, and forced them to work as peasants in rural estates known as haciendas. In order to identify the causal effects of concertaje, I exploit variation in its intensity caused by differences in labor requirements from the crops a region could grow. I first report that an increase in 10 percentage points in concertaje rates is associated with a 6 percentage points increase in contemporary poverty. I then explore several channels of persistence. Districts with higher concertaje rates have been historically associated with higher illiteracy rates, lower school enrollment, and populations with fewer years of education. I also report that concertaje is associated with a higher fraction of people working nowadays in the agricultural sector.

In the second chapter I use administrative data on the ownership, management, and taxes for the universe of all firms in Ecuador to study the role of family management in firm dynamics and its implications for aggregate productivity. A novel finding I document is that family-managed firms grow half as quickly as externally-managed firms. This growth differential implies that family-managed firms account for half of employment, despite comprising 80% of firms. I construct a general equilibrium model of firm dynamics that is consistent with these facts. Entrepreneurs choose whether to utilize family members as managers or hire external managers. External managers allow firms to scale up production, but their efficiency is a affected due to contractual frictions. Changes in the contractual environment that lead to a drop in the presence of family-managed firms by half could increase output on the order of 6%, as firms that abandon family management enjoy rapid growth.

This dissertation studies two wide ranging phenomena and their socio-economic impacts: urban divergence in terms of geographical skill sorting and fast rising housing prices. The first essay explores the empirical pattern as well as the driving forces behind the American cities’ diverging path over the past forty years. Compared to the rest of the U.S. cities, the top 20 largest cities have been growing faster in several aspects, such as city-average wage, housing price, and measured innovation intensity (e.g., patents, venture capital). In addition, this geographical divergence has contributed substantially to the rising inequality in America. To explore the causes of this divergence, this paper constructs a spatial sorting model where entrepreneurs with different talents can freely move across cities. The key idea is that cities with advantages in innovation attract more productive entrepreneurs and more workers, thereby driving up wages and housing prices. Two things distinguish my models from others: 1. Large cities are having endogenous innovation advantage in equilibrium; 2. I can freely explore the driving forces behind the divergence, with an emphasis on how technology changes can reinforce the spatial sorting mechanism. Specifically, three types of technological changes have increased the benefits of skill clustering in innovative cities: general productivity increases; improvements in communications technologies; and declines in trade costs.

The second essay studies how heterogeneous households respond to the fast rising housing prices through their life-cycle behaviors. Chinese housing market has been undergoing a rapid booming period since 1998, causing the house prices increasing significantly. As a result, households endured severe financial burdens to buy homes at price-to-income ratios of around six. Along with the rising house prices, household savings rate has been increasing consistently since 1998. Can the rising house prices be an important factor to explain the increase in household saving rate? This paper develops a life cycle dynastic model with endogenous choice on housing, coresidence and intergenerational transfer, then quantitatively analyze the effect of housing price on household saving. It shows that housing is an important motive for saving, and it accounts for about 35% of the increase in household savings rate. The housing situation affects households’ saving behavior through three channels. First, households are financially constrained due to the down payment requirement and they choose to limit their consumption in order to buy houses. Second, young adults live in their parents’ houses for a long time and save more intensively, since they get to pay less for the housing expenses under coresidence. Thirdly, older parents make large sum of intergeneration transfer in aid of the children’s housing purchase, indicating the housing affordability issue also has influence on old parents’ saving decisions.

A growing number of jobs in the US require a college degree or technical education, and the wage difference between jobs requiring a high school diploma and a college education has increased to over $17,000 per year. Enrollment levels in postsecondary education have been rising for at least the past decade, and this paper attempts to tease out how much of the increasing enrollment is due to changes in the demand by companies for workers. A Bartik Instrument, which is a measure of local area labor demand, for each county in the US was constructed from 2007 to 2014, and using multivariate linear regression the effect of changing labor demand on local postsecondary education enrollment rates was examined. A small positive effect was found, but the effect size in relation to the total change in enrollment levels was diminutive. From the start to the end of the recession (2007 to 2010), Bartik Instrument calculated unemployment increased from 5.3% nationally to 8.2%. This level of labor demand contraction would lead to a 0.42% increase in enrollment between 2008 and 2011. The true enrollment increase over this period was 7.6%, so the model calculated 5.5% of the enrollment increase was based on the changes in labor demand.

The January 12, 2010 Haiti earthquake, which hit Port-au-Prince in the late afternoon, was the cause of over 220,000 deaths and $8 billion in damages \u2014 roughly 120% of national GDP at the time. A Mw 7.5 earthquake struck rural Guatemala in the early morning in 1976 and caused 23,000-25,000 deaths, three times as many injuries, and roughly $1.1 billion in damages, which accounted for approximately 30% of Guatemala's GDP. The earthquake which hit just outside of Christchurch, New Zealand early in the morning on September 4, 2010 had a magnitude of 7.1 and caused just two injuries, no deaths, and roughly 7.2 billion USD in damages (5% of GDP). These three earthquakes, all with magnitudes over 7 on the Richter scale, caused extremely varied amounts of economic damage for these three countries. This thesis aims to identify a possible explanation as to why this was the case and suggest ways in which to improve disaster risk management going forward.

Are there measurable differences between the human capital of the refugee children born inside and outside of the United States? If so, does the amount of time spent abroad before immigrating matter, and can we get an idea of what happens to this gap over time? Looking at the Children of Immigrants Longitudinal Study (CILS) 1991-2006, I examine standardized test scores and other indicators of performance of young Indochinese refugees and immigrants. This study finds evidence for a negative correlation between being born abroad and performance in selected metrics at the time of early adolescence. This is extended into a negative relationship between the lengths of time abroad before coming to the United States (age of arrival) and those same metrics. However, this study finds signs that this gap in human capital is at least partly bridged by the time of early adulthood. It remains unclear though, whether this possible catch up is reflected in other early adult outcomes such as household income.

I began this thesis because I was confused about economics. I wondered why there were so many different models. I didn't understand how they fit together. I was also confused by the assumptions being made. For instance, the assumption that humans are rational utility-maximizers did not seem to agree with my own experiences. With my director Dr. Edward Schlee's help, my thesis has become an inquiry into the state of economic methodology, both in theory and in practice. The questions that drive this paper are: How do economists choose between theories? What is the purpose of economic theory? What is the role of empirical data in assessing models? What role do assumptions play in theory evaluation, and should assumptions make sense? Part I: Methodology is the theoretical portion of the paper. I summarize the essential arguments of the two main schools of thought in economic methodology, and argue for an updated methodology. In Part II: A case study: The expected utility hypothesis, I examine methodology in practice by assessing a handful of studies that seek to test the expected utility hypothesis. Interestingly, I find that there is a different between what economists say they are doing, and what they actually seem to be doing. Throughout this paper, I restrict my analysis to microeconomic theory, simply because this is the area with which I am more familiar. I intend this paper to be a guide for my fellow students and rising economists, as well as for already practicing economists. I hope it helps the reader better understand methodology and improve her own practice.

There is growing public concern about the implications of climate change for natural processes, such as the melting of ice at the poles, but less clear are the implications for food production. Famine and conflict have a long and complicated history, made increasingly complicated by the intricate global food system. In this paper, I explore the effect of increasingly severe El Niño Southern Oscillation cycles on conflict in an effort to determine how abnormal climate patterns affect food security and, indirectly, conflict. I use a non-linear probit model to analyze the relationship between several binary conflict variables and food supply.

Microfinance is a term that refers to providing basic financial services to the poor; it has become a powerful tool for poverty alleviation. The idea is a relatively new one - modern microfinance began through experiments in the 1970's - but it has grown quickly and currently serves over 155 million clients worldwide. There are many studies that provide evidence of the positive impact of microfinance and the movement has an array of enthusiastic proponents. It is certainly not the only solution in the battle against poverty, however, and there are also studies that question the true depth of its impact. In looking at microfinance around the globe, one thing becomes clear: although it is an international phenomenon, microfinance has definitely found more success in some regions over others.

This paper explores policies for the management of oil wealth in Norway, Mexico, and Russia, and applies them to the situation in Kazakhstan to create policy guidelines to improve the management of oil wealth in Kazakhstan. Ultimately the paper recommends that Kazakhstan transfer oil wealth to the oil stabilization fund directly, that it increase the cap on annual transfers from the fund to the budget to 11 billion dollars, and that it create strict policies for the promotion of growth.

Africa has some of the "fastest growing economies," yet there is a lack of a middle class (Economist). Natural resources have attracted foreign investments, however, most of the revenue exit these economies. What remains a consistent, permanent advantage is culture; it has been the most integrated core value before and after colonialism. The concept of culture has become a part of the identity of Africa and it has not been leveraged to its full potential. The 2013 Creative Economy Report states, "Culture is a way to create jobs and improve people's lives. It empowers people. It works for development" (UNESCO/UNDP). Cultural industries create local sustainable jobs that are less susceptible to the fluctuation of the global economy compared to jobs in factories and multinational companies. They are based on "local tacit know how" that is not accessible globally as they are people intensive rather than capital intensive (Scott A.J, 1999). Activ8 seeks to tap into this opportunity by maximizing the economic potential of developing economies by investing in their cultural industries. Activ8 aspires to accomplish this by targeting two sets of customers: creators, who are the activators, and investors. Our activators consist of two target segments: one living and working in these industries in a developing country, and the other being refugee clients who may have been exposed to a cultural industry and may want to pursue developing cultural products in their new country of asylum. Our investors are globally minded individuals who want to be culturally aware, have an appreciation for authentic cultural products, or seek to invest in entrepreneurial pursuits in Africa. During our first phase we will focus on the cultural industries in Ghana, West Africa. This will range from products in the textiles industry to sculptures and traditional instruments. We plan to pilot the first phase in Ghana and in the second phase, form a partnership with the International Rescue Committee, a refugee settlement agency, in Arizona. Our goals are to provide education and mentoring, market accessibility, product development, and financing to encourage and empower activators to be self-sufficient and successful cultural entrepreneurs, whiles improving economic development in their communities. Our online store will feature our activators' authentic products, their stories, and the cultural importance of each product. There will also be a platform for entrepreneurs in other industries in Africa to connect with venture capitalists or angel investors around the world. The educational component will be infused with product development and entrepreneurship training derived from the "From AHA!! to EXIT" strategy coined by Aram Chavez from the College of Technology and Innovation at ASU. In order for Activ8 to successfully execute its mission, Activ8 will need to be able to give our team and our activators access to technology, mentorship, and financial resources to operate an online store and rum Activ8's educational program. We also envision creating partnerships with boutiques and retail corporations to adapt these cultural products. Our long-term goal is formulate the conditions conducive for economic growth and sustainable development to ensure Africans become the main agents of development.