Occupation Share Changes and the Welfare Outcomes of Displaced Workers

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Description
Individual’s outcomes are significantly affected by occupation share changes. This is supported by regression analysis of the Displace Workers Survey a supplement to the Current Population Survey – a nationally representative panel data set. Regression analysis is used to demonstrate

Individual’s outcomes are significantly affected by occupation share changes. This is supported by regression analysis of the Displace Workers Survey a supplement to the Current Population Survey – a nationally representative panel data set. Regression analysis is used to demonstrate that individuals in occupations that are increasing as a share of the total number of workers are better off across the gamut of outcomes than their counterparts in occupations that are decreasing as a share of the total number of workers. Workers in occupations with increasing shares are more likely to find jobs quickly, less likely to experience significant wage losses, less likely to change occupation, and less likely to go on to welfare.
Date Created
2019-05
Agent

An Analysis on the Impact of the Recession on Working Hours in European Countries

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Description
The impact of the 2008 Great Recession was felt on a global level. While many European countries moved to
implement large fiscal adjustments in response to the financial crisis, various other economic consequences
were felt, such as inflation, public debt growth, and

The impact of the 2008 Great Recession was felt on a global level. While many European countries moved to
implement large fiscal adjustments in response to the financial crisis, various other economic consequences
were felt, such as inflation, public debt growth, and a decrease in purchasing power. A result from these
consequences that typically occur every recession are demand shocks within the employment sector. As firms
are put into tight financial positions, employers are forced to make employment decisions to cut costs for
long-term sustainability, such as laying off workers, or reducing their working hours.

This paper aims to investigate how weekly working hours are impacted by shocks to the economy across European countries. Using the 2008 recession as the basis, an empirical analysis was conducted with panel data for 32 countries over 33 years, with average weekly working hours across four occupational groups as the variable of interest, and various economic indicators such as GDP growth as independent variables. Additionally, countries were split up and grouped based on geographical location to examine potential country and region-specific trends.
Over time, there is a decreasing trend in weekly working hours across all observed occupations and countries. This decreasing trend continues during the 2008 recession, but the slope of decrease is not significant relative to the entire time period. However, when dis-aggregated into occupational groups with a distinction between full-time and part-time workers, the trends in working hours are a much more noticeable, both during the recession and over the entire time frame of observation.
Date Created
2019-05
Agent

The Differential Impact of Positive School Supply Shocks on School District Performance: Examining New School Facilities and Socioeconomic Status

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Description
Educational inequity – derived from disproportionate levels of resource availability and school quality – warrants examination from an economic perspective. The basket of topics pertinent to education policy today, may be characterized (mostly) into three categories, all representing key theoretical

Educational inequity – derived from disproportionate levels of resource availability and school quality – warrants examination from an economic perspective. The basket of topics pertinent to education policy today, may be characterized (mostly) into three categories, all representing key theoretical concepts of economics: supply, demand, and sorting. Furthermore, funding, teacher, and capital allocation patterns could inform the potential causal relationship between increased school demand (and resulting supply) and enhanced academic performance. My paper examines the district-level impact of positive school supply shocks – modeled via new school facility openings – on sorting and student performance on a standardized test. Applying econometric estimation techniques, my paper examines whether new school openings produce differential treatment effects in districts with separate socioeconomic composition. My methodology stems from previous research done by Cellini, Riegg, Ferreira, and Rothstein (2010), and Neilson and Zimmerman (2011). I also draw from Evans, Yoo, and Sipple (2010) to investigate an estimated version of student stability as a potential mechanism driving results. All 3 papers relate to school infrastructure and student performance. I find convincingly that test score improvements are relatively higher in districts experiencing a new school facility opening in FY 2009, than in districts without an opening. Additionally, I note treatment effect magnitude to be far smaller in districts exhibiting above-average income residents. In order to examine this finding further, I explore year-to-year changes in both pupil-to-teacher ratios and geographic mobility to characterize potential mechanisms behind this distinction. My results are consistent with research predecessors in that they suggest lower SES students benefit disproportionately from treatment and that test scores are decreasing in geographic mobility. Aside from previous research, I believe my finding that new school facilities most greatly improve student test performance in schools with lower pupil-to-teacher ratios, is unique and slightly inconsistent with the objective purpose of the new school facilities I examine. By using new school openings granted by the School Facilities Board of Arizona, I model a direct product of increased demand and am able to comment on how supply-side reactions impact high and low income districts differentially.
Date Created
2019-05
Agent

Leveraging Low-Cost Incentives to Encourage Student Performance in Online Courses

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Description
Students in an online course can face diminished incentives to exert effort and focus without the structure of instructor-paced material. To introduce new motivation to spend more time with course material, this paper examines the use of A/B split test

Students in an online course can face diminished incentives to exert effort and focus without the structure of instructor-paced material. To introduce new motivation to spend more time with course material, this paper examines the use of A/B split test content experiments. One group of students is exposed to a set of hidden hyperlinks ("Easter Eggs") within the course and earns trivially small amounts of course credit for finding them. While controlling for demographics and initial effort, finding each additional Easter Egg is associated with a 0.8 percentage point increase in final grade. This effect is even stronger for low performers: for those below the median grade before the first Easter Egg, each find increases final grade by 1.3 points. The treatment advantages low-performing students more than their high-achieving counterparts, thus helping to reduce the education gap at extremely low cost to course developers.
Date Created
2019-05
Agent

Essays on child development

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Description
This dissertation comprises three chapters.

In chapter one, using a rich dataset for the United States, I estimate a series of models to document the birth order effects on cognitive outcomes, non-cognitive outcomes, and parental investments. I estimate a model that

This dissertation comprises three chapters.

In chapter one, using a rich dataset for the United States, I estimate a series of models to document the birth order effects on cognitive outcomes, non-cognitive outcomes, and parental investments. I estimate a model that allows for heterogeneous birth order effects by unobservables to examine how birth order effects varies across households. I find that first-born children score 0.2 of a standard deviation higher on cognitive and non-cognitive outcomes than their later-born siblings. They also receive 10\% more in parental time, which accounts for more than half of the differences in outcomes. I document that birth order effects vary between 0.1 and 0.4 of a standard deviation across households with the effects being smaller in households with certain characteristics such as a high income.

In chapter two, I build a model of intra-household resource allocation that endogenously generates the decreasing birth order effects in household income with the aim of using the model for counterfactual policy experiments. The model has a life-cycle framework in which a household with two children confronts a sequence of time constraints and a lifetime monetary constraint, and divides the available time and monetary resources between consumption and investment. The counterfactual experiment shows that an annual income transfer of 10,000 USD to low-income households decreases the birth order effects on cognitive and non-cognitive skills by one-sixth, which is five times bigger than the effect in high-income household.

In chapter three, with Francesco Agostinelli and Matthew Wiswall, we examine the relative importance of investments at home and at school during an important transition for many children, entering formal schooling at kindergarten. Moreover, our framework allows for complementarities between children's skills and investments from schools. We find that investments from schools are an important determinant of children's skills at the end of kindergarten, whereas parental investments, although strongly correlated with end-of-kindergarten outcomes, have smaller effects. In addition, we document a negative complementarity between children's skills at kindergarten entry and investments from schools, implying that low-skill children benefit the most from an increase in the quality of schools.
Date Created
2018
Agent

Health Insurance and Mortality Outcomes - Extending Observational Methodologies to the Publicly Insured

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Description
Existing research into the health benefits of insurance fall into two major categories \u2014 observational and experimental. Observational studies have centered on data sets from before 2000 and focus on the mortality differences between the privately insured and the uninsured.

Existing research into the health benefits of insurance fall into two major categories \u2014 observational and experimental. Observational studies have centered on data sets from before 2000 and focus on the mortality differences between the privately insured and the uninsured. Experimental studies began with Massachusetts' 2006 health reform and continued after the passage of the Affordable Care Act. These studies measure the effects of public insurance among the coverage expansion populations. These two bodies of literature come to ambiguous and contradictory conclusions to the mortality effects and health value of insurance. This study extends the observational methodologies to the publicly insured in samples from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey in both the 1988-1994 survey and the 2001-2002 survey. Using the Cox Proportional Hazard model, this study estimates the hazard ratios faced by the privately and publicly insured compared to the uninsured. This study finds the publicly insured face hazards 1.5 times those of the uninsured (p<.001), while the privately insured do not face hazards significantly different from those of the uninsured. Literature suggests that some unobserved characteristic of the publicly insured are influencing their mortality. Interacting with participants health reveals that these differences across groups shrink as health declines. Experimental literature suggests that public insurance lowers the uninsured risk from "healthcare amenable" conditions. Treatment of these conditions may explain the hazard reductions among the uninsured in non-excellent health. The high risk of the publicly insured in excellent health defies explanation.
Date Created
2018-05
Agent

An Analysis of Consumer Demand for Digital Songs

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Description
In this paper I seek to understand how consumers value music today by investigating what consumers are willing to pay for digitally downloaded songs (such as the ones available on the iTunes or Amazon music stores) and the variety of

In this paper I seek to understand how consumers value music today by investigating what consumers are willing to pay for digitally downloaded songs (such as the ones available on the iTunes or Amazon music stores) and the variety of factors that influence their willingness to pay. I conducted a survey and received over 500 responses regarding willingness to pay for single-song downloads, consumer sentiment on whether music should be free, streaming service use, and other information pertaining to music consumption behavior. Through this research I found that paid-streamers are willing to pay more for songs than those who do not pay to stream, all else being equal. Further, Free-streamers are not willing to pay significantly more or less than non-streamers. This finding is additional information to other research that suggests streaming acts as a substitute for sales. I also found that most consumers are in the middle when it comes to the debate for whether music should always be free or always be purchased. Where someone aligns on the spectrum is a statistically significant contributing factor to what that person is willing to pay for a song. My findings also suggest that consumer preferences distinguish between benefit derived from music ownership and benefit derived from the ability to listen to music. This information sheds more light on the reason behind the declining digital download market.
Date Created
2018-05
Agent

The Signaling Effect of College Quality to Employers

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Description
Upon hiring a new college graduate, employers are left with limited information about the true productivity of the individual, mainly based on the information provided via resume and other related documents. Based on the information, which may include (and is

Upon hiring a new college graduate, employers are left with limited information about the true productivity of the individual, mainly based on the information provided via resume and other related documents. Based on the information, which may include (and is not limited to) education years, grade point average(s), the institution one attended, majors, etc., employers attempt to differentiate between the candidates. Existing employer learning literature, such as Altonji and Pierret (2001) and Peter Arcidiacono, Patrick Bayer, and Aurel Hizmo (2010), have found that employers statistically discriminate upon hiring and estimate wages based on expected productivity conditional to observable characteristics--specifically education. As one's work experience accumulates, the wages are adjusted to the newly learned characteristics correlated with productivity. Thus, college graduates are more appealing as job candidates than high school graduates, with little learning done with experience in the labor market as employers have a more accurate depiction on productivity with more education years. With rising demands for high-skilled labor, there is a growing interest on what employers learn about from the name of the college listed on one's resume, as varying ability students sort into varying quality colleges. I include a one-dimensional index of college quality, as similarly constructed by Eleanor Dillon and Jeffrey Smith (2015), to measure the effects of attending a highly-selective institution in predicting individual ability. This paper provides additional support for the employer learning model on college graduates, with an emphasis on the direct role that college quality has at the start of one's career. Although college quality appears to be influential in providing employers additional information on one's productivity, unlike education, the weight placed on it by employers does not change with experience in the labor market. I further investigate within the college market and provide possible explanations behind learning on the basis of college quality, including: the possibility of information explained by quality unrelated to one's ability and the effects of attending a highly selective college.
Date Created
2016-05
Agent

Economic Recessions and the Returns to Higher Education

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Description
A recession at the time of high school graduation could place multiple and competing pressures on a student deciding between entering the labor force and going to college. A recession may lower opportunity costs, increasing college enrollment and depressing the

A recession at the time of high school graduation could place multiple and competing pressures on a student deciding between entering the labor force and going to college. A recession may lower opportunity costs, increasing college enrollment and depressing the college wage premium; a downturn may also restrict enrollment to only those with sufficient family resources to pay for it. In the event that either of these illustrations holds true, recessions would seem to result in an adverse, exogenous welfare impact. This paper examines the extent to which recessions at the time of high school graduation affect students' likelihood of enrolling in college and then looks at the long-term earnings effects these early-life recessions carry. I first describe the choice between entering a volatile labor market and enrolling in higher education that faces 18-year-old high school graduates during a recession. For my analysis, I use data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics to study the effects recessions have on high school graduates' decision-making. I then develop a model using these same data to compare the college wage premiums for individuals treated and untreated by a recession at the time of high school graduation. I find that recessions result in an economically significant uptick in college enrollment. However, the college wage premium for those who enroll in a recession is not statistically different from that witnessed by enrollees in better economic climates. Nonetheless, those young people who enter college during a recession may witness an economically appreciable earnings premium over and above the typical college premium. I conclude by exploring the significance of these findings and reflect on their seemingly contradictory implications.
Date Created
2015-05
Agent

Agent Based Simulation of Firms and Workers Using a Cobb\u2014Douglas Production Function

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Description
Agent based models allow for complex results from simple parameters. The mobile agents in my model, the firms, are allocated an amount of capital, while the static agents, the workers, are allocated a range of wages. The firms are then

Agent based models allow for complex results from simple parameters. The mobile agents in my model, the firms, are allocated an amount of capital, while the static agents, the workers, are allocated a range of wages. The firms are then allowed to move around and compete until they match with a worker that maximizes their production. It was found from the simulation that as competition increases so do wages. It was also found that when firms stay in the environment for longer that a higher wage is possible as a result of a larger window for drawn out competition. The different parameters result in a range of equilibriums that take variable amounts of time to reach. These results are interesting because they demonstrate that the mean wage is strongly dependent upon the window of time that firms are able to compete within. This type of model was useful because it demonstrated that there is a variation in the time dependence of the equilibrium. It also demonstrated that when there is very little entry and exiting of the market, that wage levels out at an equilibrium that is the same, regardless of the ratio between the number of firms and the number of workers. Further work to be done on this model includes the addition of a Matching Function so that firms and workers have a more fair agreement. I will also be adding parameters that allow for firms to see the workers around them so that firms are able to interact with multiple workers at the same time. Both of these alteration should improve the overall accuracy of the model.
Date Created
2015-12
Agent