Weather Habits of the Public

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Description

Arizona is a unique state in that rain is not a normal occurrence throughout most of the year (NWS). Arizona averages from less than three months to half a month of measurable precipitation days per year (WRCC). With that, it

Arizona is a unique state in that rain is not a normal occurrence throughout most of the year (NWS). Arizona averages from less than three months to half a month of measurable precipitation days per year (WRCC). With that, it is important to know the public’s understanding as well as their general trend of likeness towards the weather forecasts they receive. A questionnaire was distributed to 426 people in the state of Arizona to review what they understand from the forecasts and what they would like to see on social media and television.

Date Created
2019-05

The Long-term Impact of Land Use Land Cover Change on Urban Climate: Evidence from the Phoenix Metropolitan Area, Arizona

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Description
This dissertation research studies long-term spatio-temporal patterns of surface urban heat island (SUHI) intensity, urban evapotranspiration (ET), and urban outdoor water use (OWU) using Phoenix metropolitan area (PMA), Arizona as the case study. This dissertation is composed of three chapters.

This dissertation research studies long-term spatio-temporal patterns of surface urban heat island (SUHI) intensity, urban evapotranspiration (ET), and urban outdoor water use (OWU) using Phoenix metropolitan area (PMA), Arizona as the case study. This dissertation is composed of three chapters. The first chapter evaluates the SUHI intensity for PMA using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land surface temperature (LST) product and a time-series trend analysis to discover areas that experienced significant changes of SUHI intensity between 2000 and 2017. The heating and cooling effects of different urban land use land cover (LULC) types was also examined using classified Landsat satellite images. The second chapter is focused on urban ET and the impacts of urban LULC change on ET. An empirical model of urban ET for PMA was built using flux tower data and MODIS land products using multivariate regression analysis. A time-series trend analysis was then performed to discover areas in PMA that experienced significant changes of ET between 2001 and 2015. The impact of urban LULC change on ET was examined using classified LULC maps. The third chapter models urban OWU in PMA using a surface energy balance model named METRIC (Mapping Evapotranspiration at high spatial Resolution with Internalized Calibration) and time-series Landsat Thematic Mapper 5 imagery for 2010. The relationship between urban LULC types and OWU was examined with the use of very high-resolution land cover classification data generated from the National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) imagery and regression analysis. Socio-demographic variables were selected from census data at the census track level and analyzed against OWU to study their relationship using correlation analysis. This dissertation makes significant contributions and expands the knowledge of long-term urban climate dynamics for PMA and the influence of urban expansion and LULC change on regional climate. Research findings and results can be used to provide constructive suggestions to urban planners, decision-makers, and city managers to formulate new policies and regulations when planning new constructions for the purpose of sustainable development for a desert city.
Date Created
2018
Agent

Walking and Transit and Heat, Oh My!: An Exposure Study of Phoenix Pedestrians

Description

Many people use public transportation in their daily lives, which is often praised at as a healthy and sustainable choice to make. However, in extreme temperatures this also puts people at a greater risk for negative consequences resulting from such

Many people use public transportation in their daily lives, which is often praised at as a healthy and sustainable choice to make. However, in extreme temperatures this also puts people at a greater risk for negative consequences resulting from such exposure to heat. In Phoenix, public transportation riders are faced with extreme heat in the summer along with the increased internal heat production caused by the physical activity required to use public transportation. In this study, I estimated total exposure and average exposure per rider for six stops in Phoenix. To do this I used City of Phoenix ridership data, weather data, and survey responses from an ASU City of Phoenix Bus Stop Survey conducted in summer 2016. These data sets were combined by multiplying different metrics to produce various exposure values. During analysis two sets of calculations were made. One keeping weather constant and another keeping ridership constant. I found that there was a large range of exposure between the selected stops and that the thermal environment influences the amount of exposure depending on the time of day the exposure is occurring. During the morning a greener location leads to less exposure, while in the afternoon an urban location leads to less exposure. Know detailed information about exposure at these stops I was also able to evaluate survey participants' thermal comfort at each stop and how it may relate to exposure. These findings are useful in making educated transportation planning decisions and improving the quality of life for people living in places with extreme summer temperatures.

Date Created
2018-05
Agent

Menopause Symptoms in Underserved and Homeless Women living in the Extreme Temperatures of Arizona

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Description

Regional and geographical differences may explain variability in menopausal symptom occurrence due to development of climate-specific thermoneutral zones leading to population-specific hot flash frequencies. Limited information available regarding menopausal symptoms in underserved women living in extreme heat.

Understanding the perception of

Regional and geographical differences may explain variability in menopausal symptom occurrence due to development of climate-specific thermoneutral zones leading to population-specific hot flash frequencies. Limited information available regarding menopausal symptoms in underserved women living in extreme heat.

Understanding the perception of menopausal symptoms in underserved women living in extreme heat regions to identify if heat impacts perception of menopausal symptoms was the objective of this study. Women in free, low-income, and homeless clinics in Phoenix were surveyed during summer and winter months using a self-administered, written questionnaire including demographic, climate and menopause related questions, including the Green Climacteric Scale (GCS).

A total of 139 predominantly Hispanic (56 %), uninsured (53 %), menopausal (56 %), mid-aged (mean 49.9, SD 10.3) women were surveyed— 36% were homeless or in shelters. Most women were not on menopausal hormone therapy (98 %). Twenty-two percent reported hot flashes and 26% night sweats. Twenty-five percent of women reported previously becoming ill from heat. More women thought season influenced menopausal symptoms during summer than winter (41 % vs. 14 %, p = 0.0009). However, majority of women did not think temperature outside influenced their menopausal symptoms and that did not differ by season (73 % in winter vs. 60% in summer, p=0.1094). No statistically significant differences seen for vasomotor symptoms between winter and summer months.

Regional and geographical differences may be key in understanding the variability in menopausal symptoms. Regardless of season, the menopausal, underserved and homeless women living in Arizona reported few vasomotor symptoms. In the summer, they were more likely to report that the season influenced their menopausal symptoms rather than temperature suggesting an influence of the season on symptom perception.

Date Created
2018-05
Agent

On the Association Between Weather Variability and Total and Cause-Specific Mortality Before and During Industrialization in Sweden

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Description

Background: While there is ample evidence for health risks associated with heat and other extreme weather events today, little is known about the impact of weather patterns on population health in preindustrial societies.

Objective: To investigate the impact of weather patterns

Background: While there is ample evidence for health risks associated with heat and other extreme weather events today, little is known about the impact of weather patterns on population health in preindustrial societies.

Objective: To investigate the impact of weather patterns on population health in Sweden before and during industrialization.

Methods: We obtained records of monthly mortality and of monthly mean temperatures and precipitation for Skellefteå parish, northern Sweden, for the period 1800-1950. The associations between monthly total mortality, as well as monthly mortality due to infectious and cardiovascular diseases, and monthly mean temperature and cumulative precipitation were modelled using a time series approach for three separate periods, 1800−1859, 1860-1909, and 1910-1950.

Results: We found higher temperatures and higher amounts of precipitation to be associated with lower mortality both in the medium term (same month and two-months lag) and in the long run (lag of six months up to a year). Similar patterns were found for mortality due to infectious and cardiovascular diseases. Furthermore, the effect of temperature and precipitation decreased over time.

Conclusions: Higher temperature and precipitation amounts were associated with reduced death counts with a lag of up to 12 months. The decreased effect over time may be due to improvements in nutritional status, decreased infant deaths, and other changes in society that occurred in the course of the demographic and epidemiological transition.

Contribution: The study contributes to a better understanding of the complex relationship between weather and mortality and, in particular, historical weather-related mortality.

Date Created
2016-10-05
Agent

Air Quality, Community Engagement, and Emerging Technologies

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Description

Maricopa County is the home of the Phoenix metropolitan area, an expansive city with serious air quality concerns. To ameliorate air quality in the county, the Maricopa County Air Quality Department developed a website and mobile application called "Clean Air

Maricopa County is the home of the Phoenix metropolitan area, an expansive city with serious air quality concerns. To ameliorate air quality in the county, the Maricopa County Air Quality Department developed a website and mobile application called "Clean Air Make More" as a means of outreach and engagement. In doing this, the county has found a way to engender a bilateral relationship between individuals and their government agency. This study analyzes the effectiveness of Clean Air Make More in establishing this relationship and engaging the community in efforts to improve air quality. It concludes that the design of the application effectively meets user needs, but marketing efforts should target populations disposed to taking action regarding air quality.

Date Created
2015-05
Agent

Opportunities and Challenges for Personal Heat Exposure Research

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Description

Background:
Environmental heat exposure is a public health concern. The impacts of environmental heat on mortality and morbidity at the population scale are well documented, but little is known about specific exposures that individuals experience.

Objectives:
The first objective of this work was

Background:
Environmental heat exposure is a public health concern. The impacts of environmental heat on mortality and morbidity at the population scale are well documented, but little is known about specific exposures that individuals experience.

Objectives:
The first objective of this work was to catalyze discussion of the role of personal heat exposure information in research and risk assessment. The second objective was to provide guidance regarding the operationalization of personal heat exposure research methods.

Discussion:
We define personal heat exposure as realized contact between a person and an indoor or outdoor environment that poses a risk of increases in body core temperature and/or perceived discomfort. Personal heat exposure can be measured directly with wearable monitors or estimated indirectly through the combination of time–activity and meteorological data sets. Complementary information to understand individual-scale drivers of behavior, susceptibility, and health and comfort outcomes can be collected from additional monitors, surveys, interviews, ethnographic approaches, and additional social and health data sets. Personal exposure research can help reveal the extent of exposure misclassification that occurs when individual exposure to heat is estimated using ambient temperature measured at fixed sites and can provide insights for epidemiological risk assessment concerning extreme heat.

Conclusions:
Personal heat exposure research provides more valid and precise insights into how often people encounter heat conditions and when, where, to whom, and why these encounters occur. Published literature on personal heat exposure is limited to date, but existing studies point to opportunities to inform public health practice regarding extreme heat, particularly where fine-scale precision is needed to reduce health consequences of heat exposure.

Date Created
2017-08
Agent

Multiple Trigger Points for Quantifying Heat-Health Impacts: New Evidence from a Hot Climate

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Description

Background: Extreme heat is a public health challenge. The scarcity of directly comparable studies on the association of heat with morbidity and mortality and the inconsistent identification of threshold temperatures for severe impacts hampers the development of comprehensive strategies aimed

Background: Extreme heat is a public health challenge. The scarcity of directly comparable studies on the association of heat with morbidity and mortality and the inconsistent identification of threshold temperatures for severe impacts hampers the development of comprehensive strategies aimed at reducing adverse heat-health events.

Objectives: This quantitative study was designed to link temperature with mortality and morbidity events in Maricopa County, Arizona, USA, with a focus on the summer season.

Methods: Using Poisson regression models that controlled for temporal confounders, we assessed daily temperature–health associations for a suite of mortality and morbidity events, diagnoses, and temperature metrics. Minimum risk temperatures, increasing risk temperatures, and excess risk temperatures were statistically identified to represent different “trigger points” at which heat-health intervention measures might be activated.

Results: We found significant and consistent associations of high environmental temperature with all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, heat-related mortality, and mortality resulting from conditions that are consequences of heat and dehydration. Hospitalizations and emergency department visits due to heat-related conditions and conditions associated with consequences of heat and dehydration were also strongly associated with high temperatures, and there were several times more of those events than there were deaths. For each temperature metric, we observed large contrasts in trigger points (up to 22°C) across multiple health events and diagnoses.

Conclusion: Consideration of multiple health events and diagnoses together with a comprehensive approach to identifying threshold temperatures revealed large differences in trigger points for possible interventions related to heat. Providing an array of heat trigger points applicable for different end-users may improve the public health response to a problem that is projected to worsen in the coming decades.

Date Created
2016-02-01
Agent

Challenges Associated with Projecting Urbanization-Induced Heat-Related Mortality

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Description

Maricopa County, Arizona, anchor to the fastest growing megapolitan area in the United States, is located in a hot desert climate where extreme temperatures are associated with elevated risk of mortality. Continued urbanization in the region will impact atmospheric temperatures

Maricopa County, Arizona, anchor to the fastest growing megapolitan area in the United States, is located in a hot desert climate where extreme temperatures are associated with elevated risk of mortality. Continued urbanization in the region will impact atmospheric temperatures and, as a result, potentially affect human health. We aimed to quantify the number of excess deaths attributable to heat in Maricopa County based on three future urbanization and adaptation scenarios and multiple exposure variables.

Two scenarios (low and high growth projections) represent the maximum possible uncertainty range associated with urbanization in central Arizona, and a third represents the adaptation of high-albedo cool roof technology. Using a Poisson regression model, we related temperature to mortality using data spanning 1983–2007. Regional climate model simulations based on 2050-projected urbanization scenarios for Maricopa County generated distributions of temperature change, and from these predicted changes future excess heat-related mortality was estimated. Subject to urbanization scenario and exposure variable utilized, projections of heat-related mortality ranged from a decrease of 46 deaths per year (− 95%) to an increase of 339 deaths per year (+ 359%).

Projections based on minimum temperature showed the greatest increase for all expansion and adaptation scenarios and were substantially higher than those for daily mean temperature. Projections based on maximum temperature were largely associated with declining mortality. Low-growth and adaptation scenarios led to the smallest increase in predicted heat-related mortality based on mean temperature projections. Use of only one exposure variable to project future heat-related deaths may therefore be misrepresentative in terms of direction of change and magnitude of effects. Because urbanization-induced impacts can vary across the diurnal cycle, projections of heat-related health outcomes that do not consider place-based, time-varying urban heat island effects are neglecting essential elements for policy relevant decision-making.

Date Created
2014-04-28
Agent

Assessing Adaptation Strategies for Extreme Heat: A Public Health Evaluation of Cooling Centers in Maricopa County, Arizona

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Description

Preventing heat-associated morbidity and mortality is a public health priority in Maricopa County, Arizona (United States). The objective of this project was to evaluate Maricopa County cooling centers and gain insight into their capacity to provide relief for the public

Preventing heat-associated morbidity and mortality is a public health priority in Maricopa County, Arizona (United States). The objective of this project was to evaluate Maricopa County cooling centers and gain insight into their capacity to provide relief for the public during extreme heat events. During the summer of 2014, 53 cooling centers were evaluated to assess facility and visitor characteristics. Maricopa County staff collected data by directly observing daily operations and by surveying managers and visitors. The cooling centers in Maricopa County were often housed within community, senior, or religious centers, which offered various services for at least 1500 individuals daily. Many visitors were unemployed and/or homeless. Many learned about a cooling center by word of mouth or by having seen the cooling center’s location. The cooling centers provide a valuable service and reach some of the region’s most vulnerable populations. This project is among the first to systematically evaluate cooling centers from a public health perspective and provides helpful insight to community leaders who are implementing or improving their own network of cooling centers.

Date Created
2016-09-23
Agent