The United States spends far more on healthcare than other developed countries, and it is increasing at a rapid pace that places intense financial pressure on the American public. The high levels of spending are not attributable to increased quality of care or a healthier general population. Rather, the culprits are a combination of uniquely American social and cultural factors that increase the prevalence of chronic illness coupled with a large and complex healthcare industry that has a multitude of stakeholders, each with their own motivations and expense margins that inflate prices. Additionally, rampant lack of transparency, overutilization and low-quality care contribute to unnecessarily frequent and expensive payments. Public and private institutions have implemented legislation and programs that provide temporary relief, but powerful lobbying efforts by healthcare-related organizations and a general American aversion to high government involvement have prevented the United States from creating effective, long-lasting reform.

Of the many retirement savings options available, defined benefit pension plans were once a retirement income staple. Due to the highs and lows of the economic cycle, defined benefit pension plans have become severely underfunded. A series of inadequate contributions, enabled by weak funding and risk management policies, poses uncertainty for the retirement of many. The cost of paying pension benefits rises as defined benefit pension plans become increasingly underfunded, burdening the employers who continue to pay them. However, without increasing these already unaffordable pension benefits alongside inflation, they become less valuable to retirees. As pension benefits lose their value and the costs of retirement, such as healthcare and assisted living, increase, defined benefit pension plans may not provide the retirement security that was once promised.

Actuaries can analyze healthcare trends to determine if rates are reasonable and if reserves are adequate. In this talk, we will provide a framework of methods to analyze the healthcare trend during the pandemic. COVID-19 may influence future healthcare cost trends in many ways. First, direct COVID-19 costs may increase the amount of total experienced healthcare costs. However, with the implementation of social distancing, the amount of regularly scheduled care may be deferred to a future date. There are also many unknown factors regarding the transmission of the virus. Implementing epidemiology models allows us to predict infections by studying the dynamics of the disease. The correlation between infection amounts and hospitalization occupancies provide a methodology to estimate the amount of deferred and recouped amounts of regularly scheduled healthcare costs. Thus, the combination of the models allows to model the healthcare cost trend impact due to COVID-19.