Information Asymmetry and Corporate Bond Issuance Premium: Evidence from the KUNGFU bonds

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Description
Kungfu bonds are bonds denominated in dollars issued by mainland companies in overseas markets. In the past ten years, the issuance of Chinese dollar bonds has been in full swing. The Kungfu bond market is booming with China's economic development

Kungfu bonds are bonds denominated in dollars issued by mainland companies in overseas markets. In the past ten years, the issuance of Chinese dollar bonds has been in full swing. The Kungfu bond market is booming with China's economic development and the deepening of the capital market. Since 2019, the regulatory policies for the domestic real estate industry have gradually become stricter. Developers led by Evergrande and Country Garden have extremely tight cash flow, and their domestic and overseas financing channels are greatly restricted. In addition, due to the repeated impact of the epidemic, the risk exposure of Chinese-funded US dollar bonds and real estate debts has intensified. Due to the wave of defaults induced by the forced deleveraging of domestic regulators, overseas credit bonds with poor credit quality have been sold by investors. This paper looks into the interest rate level of Kungfu bonds as the research object, and examines the information asymmetry as the research entry point to conduct an in-depth quantitative study of the additional costs that mainland real estate companies need to pay for new bonds issued in the international market, and what factors may exacerbate or alleviate information asymmetry.This study found that Mainland real estate companies need to pay an additional 1.2238% interest rate difference on average when issuing bonds in Hong Kong for the first time. In addition, Mainland real estate companies that have issued bonds in the international market pay a lower credit premium on average, which means that issuing bonds in the international market can significantly enhance the company's reputation and alleviate information asymmetry among institutional investors, thereby reducing financing costs. To sum up, this paper analyzes in depth the pricing problem of Chinese dollar bonds issued in the international market through the method of quantitative regression, enriches the related research on bond issuance pricing, and provides information necessary for practitioners to make investment decisions and for listed companies to make financing arrangements. It provides valuable suggestions, which may be applied to other industries.
Date Created
2024
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An Empirical Study on the Influencing Factors of Value-Growth Stock Style Rotation on the A-share Market

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Description
Based on the common phenomenon of style rotation in domestic and foreign stock markets, this paper aims to study and answer which factors jointly drive style rotation and whether style rotation is predictable. Based on the dividend discount model, this

Based on the common phenomenon of style rotation in domestic and foreign stock markets, this paper aims to study and answer which factors jointly drive style rotation and whether style rotation is predictable. Based on the dividend discount model, this paper selects variables that may explain style rotation from the three dimensions of capital cost, risk premium and performance growth. At the same time, this paper innovatively introduces the capital flow variables of institutional investors and northward funds to help explain and predict style rotation from the perspective of "smart money".First, based on the A-share market, this study uses the daily frequency value factor yield data from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2020 to carry out temporal regression of the variables that may affect the value factor yield. It is found that the macroeconomic leading indicator and Wind A dynamic dividend yield can significantly affect the yield of value factor, and the impact is positive, that is, the rise of the macroeconomic leading indicator and the rise of the dynamic dividend yield of A shares both lead to the rise of value factor yield. In addition, based on daily frequency, this paper also found that value factor yield and northbound capital scale is significantly negatively correlated, but this relationship does not exist on monthly frequency. Secondly, this study further uses the daily frequency value factor yield data from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2020 to carry out temporal regression of each explanatory variable of the previous day, trying to study whether these variables can predict the value factor yield. It is found that the leading macroeconomic indicator and Wind All-A dynamic dividend yield can positively predict the yield of value factor. Specifically, if the leading macroeconomic indicator rises in the previous trading day or the Wind A dynamic dividend yield rises in the previous day, on average, the value factor yield will rise in the next trading day. This finding is consistent with the results of synchronous temporal regression in the previous section. In addition, this paper does not find that the size of northbound funds can significantly predict the return rate of the value factor. Finally, this study uses variables that have significant predictive effect on the value factor rate of return to build a model. Based on this model, the out-of-sample value factor rate of return is predicted, so as to timing the value factor. The results show that the rate of return of value factor investment strategy based on model timing is twice as high as that of long-term holding value factor.
Date Created
2024
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Empirical Study on Pricing of Convertible Bonds in China's Market

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Description
Convertible bonds, as a vital means for listed companies to raise funds, are favored by both listed companies and institutional investors due to their hybrid features of equity, debt, and options. The U.S. market, with its large scale, significantly supports

Convertible bonds, as a vital means for listed companies to raise funds, are favored by both listed companies and institutional investors due to their hybrid features of equity, debt, and options. The U.S. market, with its large scale, significantly supports the rapid growth of numerous high-tech enterprises. In contrast, China's convertible bond market started later and lags behind in terms of issuer numbers and issuance scale. Since the issuance regulations on February 17, 2017, the convertible bond market in China has seen substantial development opportunities, with increased enthusiasm from listed companies and various investors, leading to significant growth in market issuance and trading volume.This article employs Monte Carlo simulation to empirically study the theoretical pricing of convertible bonds, aiming to identify factors influencing differences between theoretical and market prices. Analyzing classic terms such as conversion, redemption, put, and call provisions, the study establishes a foundation for subsequent convertible bond pricing research. Following the consideration of various terms, the article uses the Monte Carlo simulation method to attempt pricing the asset prices of convertible bonds. To enhance computational efficiency, the core simulation process undergoes encapsulation and optimization. The analysis of theoretical prices reveals minimal overall fluctuation in pricing errors, showing a negative error rate before June 2021, indicating market prices slightly below theoretical prices, and afterward, market prices slightly above theoretical prices. Finally, the article analyzes the reasons behind pricing errors, examining 13 variables' potential impact through regression analysis, finding significant effects from 11 variables.The article attempts to provide a reasonable interpretation of the logic behind the impact of variables on pricing errors.
Date Created
2024
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Equity Structure, Employee Equity Incentive and Corporate Innovation: Evidence from China’s Inductance Manufacturing Sector

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Description
This study aims to explore the impact of employee incentives on innovation in the Chinese inductive manufacturing industry. Using a sample of publicly listed inductive manufacturing companies in China, we construct a panel dataset spanning from 1994 to 2022 and

This study aims to explore the impact of employee incentives on innovation in the Chinese inductive manufacturing industry. Using a sample of publicly listed inductive manufacturing companies in China, we construct a panel dataset spanning from 1994 to 2022 and employ a multiple regression model for empirical analysis. Our findings reveal that employee incentive programs have a significant positive effect on the performance of inductive companies in terms of inductive reliability experiments, and the number of patent applications, granted patents, and patent citations over the next two years. Particularly, the positive relationship between employee incentives and innovation is more pronounced in companies with higher ownership concentration. This study provides empirical evidence supporting the crucial role of employee incentives in facilitating corporate innovation in Chinese inductive manufacturing firms. Furthermore, the results provide valuable insights for firms in formulating stock ownership structures and employee incentive plans, as well as policy implications for developing China's high-end manufacturing industries.
Date Created
2023
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基于统计分析方法的网红直播带货效果影响因素研究

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近年来,随着我国居民消费结构不断升级,数字技术驱动的新消费推动传统消费转型。在新的消费浪潮下企业纷纷寻求突破,电商直播带货成为当下最受企业青睐的线上营销方式。 然而企业选择电商直播的方式拓展业务时仍需面对许多问题。本文旨在研究品牌电商在考虑直播时如何选择网红以及网红在直播间的表现对消费者购买意愿的影响。通过设计正交实验,本文从实验数据分析影响网红直播带货效果的关键因素。结合SOR理论模型和问卷调查方法,本文分析了影响消费者购买决策的网红主播特征并梳理出消费者购买决策的影响路径以及关键因素。本文结论对于企业如何选择直播网红,网红在直播间如何影响消费者购买决策,本文的研究成果对提升企业运营效率具有很好的指导意义。
Date Created
2023
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比特币在大类资产配置中的作用研究

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Description
2020年的疫情导致全球多数经济体进行史无前例的货币超发,美国的货币超发水平甚至超过二战时期,货币总量快速上升推升资产价格,比特币成为大类资产中的领跑者,越来越受到市场的关注和重视,作为新生事物,全球监管机构对比特币普遍持谨慎态度,主流金融机构虽然对比特币有所关注,但是研究并不深入。本文通过研究加入比特币的资产配置模型投资效果,以及比特币给投资组合带来的边际变化,全面说明比特币在资产配置中的作用,并以一个常见的基础配置模型为出发点,讨论不同参数取值下,资产配置结果的差异,并从统计学角度总结出收益及风险角度的一般化特征。其次,对比特币的金融特性从宏观因素、自回归趋势、格兰杰因果检验等多个角度进行分析,解析比特币的特性。研究发现,比特币具有高风险高收益特征,且其风险收益比优于其它主流金融主权定价锚资产,加入比特币后,组合的收益增益非常明显。且无论投资者怎么选择起始时间、采取何种方式预测收益及风险,在多长时间范围内进行再平衡,投资组合均有80%以上的概率实现收益提升,且收益提升幅度大于风险提升幅度。从最优投资点推广到一般化的投资有效前沿上,以上结论依然成立,且评估投资有效前沿时,重复随机抽样后,投资组合夏普率提升的概率亦达到71%以上。更进一步,为规避收益预测参数不稳定对投资结果的影响,改进收益预测方式,基于波动率大小压缩预测收益后,预测结果能抵御资产短期扰动带来的影响。最后,笔者从比特币的自相关性、格兰杰因果检验与宏观因素影响角度研究了比特币资产的特性,发现比特币具有极强的价格趋势,且资产配置中,其价格趋势是提升组合夏普率的主要贡献来源。在采用工业增加值(IAV)、M2解释比特币的价格变化时,发现比特币与宏观因子之间的关系并不显著,且比特币与其他资产收益的绝大多数格兰杰因果关系检验结果不显著,这说明比特币价格变化受自身特性的影响更大,但是当剔除比特币的极端收益时,比特币与宏观因素之间的相关关系变得局部显著。本文是典型的实践型论文,具有非常强的实战指导价值,可以为资产配置实践者提供借鉴。
Date Created
2023
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碳达峰及碳中和对电解铝行业产能及产量的影响

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Description
2021年10月24日,中共中央、国务院印发《关于全面准确全面贯彻新发展理念做好碳达峰碳中和工作的意见》,再次对碳达峰碳中和做出战略部署。意见中重点指出,到2030年单位国内生产总值能耗大幅下降;与2005年相比,单位GDP的二氧化碳排放量下降了65%以上;非化石能源消费比例达到25%左右。11月7日,中共中央、国务院发布关于深入打好污染防治攻坚战的意见。其中提到,坚决遏制高耗能、高排放项目盲目发展。2020年第七十五届联合国大会上,我国向世界郑重承诺:力争在2030年前实现碳达峰,努力争取在2060年前实现碳中和。 实现碳达峰、碳中和目标,意味着我国在产业结构、能源结构、投资结构、生活方式等方面都将发生深刻转变。服务好碳达峰、碳中和的战略部署,是未来一段时期金融工作的重点之一。通过对电解铝环节能耗控制和总量控制是实现碳排放下降的重要途径之一。 目前大多研究文献集中在宏观层面的“双碳”目标趋势与热点分析,研究推导缺乏数据支撑。大多数文献以某一个因子为重点进行研究,研究具有片面性。为了有效量化通过对电解铝行业产能布局、产量调整,通过对电解铝上市企业经营数据在"双碳"目标实施前后变化的定量分析,进一步理解和分析碳达峰及碳中和对电解铝行业的影响。 量化和评估碳达峰和碳中和目标实施前后对电解铝行业的影响,本文将电解铝行业政策实施前后的政策变量作为此研究的主要自变量。同时,将电解铝上市企业的产能或产量作为因变量,将总资产、资产负债率等作为控制变量予以研究。本文选取的数据示例来自于WIND数据库和CSMAR经济金融研究数据库。 距离碳达峰及碳中和具体目标首次公布的时间短,碳达峰、碳中和工作的路线图、施工图处于建立与推进阶段,可研究的目标公布后的上市企业样本数据有限,在研究电解铝上市企业样本的基础上,本文也尝试用同样的方法研究控制组上市企业的财务数据及产能、产量数据,通过对比"双碳"目标对电解铝影响的差异,更加完整地论证碳中和及碳达峰战略对电解铝行业的影响。
Date Created
2023
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战略执行力对企业绩效的影响

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在日趋复杂动态的环境中,如何提高企业的绩效不仅是企业家最感兴趣的事情,也是众多学者进行企业管理方面研究的落脚点。从目前战略执行力的研究现状来看,一些学者对战略执行力的性质和构成进行了研究,并取得了一定的成果。但这些研究多为描述性分析,实证研究较少,且较为分散,尚未形成较为完整的分析框架。对于战略执行力、员工生产力与企业绩效关系的研究则更少。因此,本研究将通过对现有文献的分析和梳理,研究战略执行的本质及其构成并进一步研究战略执行力与企业绩效的关系及其作用机理。
Date Created
2023
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中国信贷脉冲对房地产价格影响的实证分析

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在世界经济周期当中,货币及信贷政策是各国政府调节经济周期的主要手段,但宽松的货币及信贷环境不仅仅会体现在GDP生产和交易过程中,也会带来二手的资产市场价格变动,进而对国家的经济,资产市场等产生长远的影响。当前疫情之下,美国采取极度宽松的货币政策,而中国资产价格经过过去30年的发展,已经处在高位,如何控制货币信贷政策和资产价格的关系是政策研究重点。本文引入信贷脉冲(Credit impulse)、利率、房地产价格增速作为变量,采用VAR模型评估中国的信贷脉冲对于中国房地产价格增速的影响,发现信贷脉冲的冲击在当期不会对房地产价格增速造成很大影响,但在第二期开始对房地产价格增速产生明显的正向作用,然后从第三期开始效果减弱,但是持续时间也比较长,即信贷脉冲可以作为房价预测的6-12个月的领先指标。而对分能级的一二三线城市的研究来看,一线城市房价增速受到信贷脉冲的影响程度明显强于二线城市,二线城市强于三线城市;而从脉冲响应的时间滞后性来看也是一线城市快于二线城市,二线城市快于三线城市。 本文引入房地产价格增速、信贷脉冲、利率、收入因素、城市化作为变量采用面板模型分析了中国信贷脉冲对各类城市商品住房平均销售价格增速的影响。从能级来看,信贷脉冲影响的程度上,一线城市强于二线城市,二线城市强于三线城市;从区位来看,信贷脉冲对东部地区价格影响显著,中部和西部影响较弱。 本文从一个新的视角提出了一个预测中国房地产价格的走势的宏观模型,并提供了实证检验,可为中国的投资者提供投资判断依据。
Date Created
2022
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营运资本周转期的影响因素及其与企业绩效的关系研究 — 来自江苏混凝土企业的实证证据

Description
随着经营中赊销占比的增加,对企业的营运资本管理能力要求更高,而如何优化营运资金项目,特别是其中的应收账款和存货等流动资产对企业意义重大。混凝土企业的存货占比很小,应收账款在企业流动性资金中的占比极高,影响营运资本周转期的主要因素为应收账款周转期,如何有效提高营运资本效率,特别是应收账款回收效率,是混凝土企业在市场竞争中求得生存的核心之一。以占用营运资金形成应收帐款促进销售会给企业带来一定的优势,也会为企业带来一定的风险,应收账款增加带来的营运资本管理是财务管理的重要事实,需要准确监视和适当管理,企业必须了解应收帐款的规模、性质以及时限,并深入分析讨论这些因素会对企业的绩效带来的潜在影响,合理发挥应收帐款的作用,确保企业营运资本处于正常、合理水平。本文首先以营运资本周转期为核心被解释变量,查看影响不同企业营运资本周转期差异的原因,并基于对这些原因的分析,建立混凝土企业营运资本风险,特别是应收账款风险的预警机制,其次,探讨营运资本周转期与企业绩效的相关关系,验证不同企业的营运资本周转期差异是否会影响企业绩效,在数据支撑的范围内,对影响大小进行一定程度的探讨,为江苏省混凝土行业公司提供一定的经营指导意见,同时为不同企业探索营运资本周转期与企业绩效的相关关系提供参考。 本文研究发现对于江苏省内不同混凝土企业,营运资本周转期与企业绩效正相关且显著,这表明混凝土企业的贸易特征非常明显,企业绩效更多的来自于降低营运资本效率。同时,研究还发现,企业站点数量、周边站点数量、银行承兑汇票结算、其他结算方式、激励机制、客户付款流程、分类催收、第三方催收、竞争形势、高管交际能力这些变量与营运资本周转期密切相关,这些维度分别属于企业规模、企业竞争、资金结算、激励机制、客户信息、账款催收、高管特征等大类,表明提升混凝土企业营运资本周转效率的方式方法多样,值得行业内企业家们总结与探索。
Date Created
2022
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