Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML) is a fatal hematological cancer. The genetic abnormalities underlying AML are extremely heterogeneous among patients, making prognosis and treatment selection very difficult. While clinical proteomics data has the potential to improve prognosis accuracy, thus far, the quantitative means to do so have yet to be developed. Here we report the results and insights gained from the DREAM 9 Acute Myeloid Prediction Outcome Prediction Challenge (AML-OPC), a crowdsourcing effort designed to promote the development of quantitative methods for AML prognosis prediction. We identify the most accurate and robust models in predicting patient response to therapy, remission duration, and overall survival. We further investigate patient response to therapy, a clinically actionable prediction, and find that patients that are classified as resistant to therapy are harder to predict than responsive patients across the 31 models submitted to the challenge. The top two performing models, which held a high sensitivity to these patients, substantially utilized the proteomics data to make predictions. Using these models, we also identify which signaling proteins were useful in predicting patient therapeutic response.

Despite wide applications of high-throughput biotechnologies in cancer research, many biomarkers discovered by exploring large-scale omics data do not provide satisfactory performance when used to predict cancer treatment outcomes. This problem is partly due to the overlooking of functional implications of molecular markers. Here, we present a novel computational method that uses evolutionary conservation as prior knowledge to discover bona fide biomarkers. Evolutionary selection at the molecular level is nature's test on functional consequences of genetic elements. By prioritizing genes that show significant statistical association and high functional impact, our new method reduces the chances of including spurious markers in the predictive model. When applied to predicting therapeutic responses for patients with acute myeloid leukemia and to predicting metastasis for patients with prostate cancers, the new method gave rise to evolution-informed models that enjoyed low complexity and high accuracy. The identified genetic markers also have significant implications in tumor progression and embrace potential drug targets. Because evolutionary conservation can be estimated as a gene-specific, position-specific, or allele-specific parameter on the nucleotide level and on the protein level, this new method can be extended to apply to miscellaneous “omics” data to accelerate biomarker discoveries.