Biodiversity, dispersal, and risk: species spread in ecological and social-ecological systems

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Description
The closer integration of the world economy has yielded many positive benefits including the worldwide diffusion of innovative technologies and efficiency gains following the widening of international markets. However, closer integration also has negative consequences. Specifically, I focus

The closer integration of the world economy has yielded many positive benefits including the worldwide diffusion of innovative technologies and efficiency gains following the widening of international markets. However, closer integration also has negative consequences. Specifically, I focus on the ecology and economics of the spread of species and pathogens. I approach the problem using theoretical and applied models in ecology and economics. First, I use a multi-species theoretical network model to evaluate the ability of dispersal to maintain system-level biodiversity and productivity. I then extend this analysis to consider the effects of dispersal in a coupled social-ecological system where people derive benefits from species. Finally, I estimate an empirical model of the foot and mouth disease risks of trade. By combining outbreak and trade data I estimate the disease risks associated with the international trade in live animals while controlling for the biosecurity measures in place in importing countries and the presence of wild reservoirs. I find that the risks associated with the spread and dispersal of species may be positive or negative, but that this relationship depends on the ecological and economic components of the system and the interactions between them.
Date Created
2016
Agent

Spread rate estimation and the role of spatial configuration and human behavior

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Description
The spread of invasive species may be greatly affected by human responses to prior species spread, but models and estimation methods seldom explicitly consider human responses. I investigate the effects of management responses on estimates of invasive species spread rates.

The spread of invasive species may be greatly affected by human responses to prior species spread, but models and estimation methods seldom explicitly consider human responses. I investigate the effects of management responses on estimates of invasive species spread rates. To do this, I create an agent-based simulation model of an insect invasion across a county-level citrus landscape. My model provides an approximation of a complex spatial environment while allowing the "truth" to be known. The modeled environment consists of citrus orchards with insect pests dispersing among them. Insects move across the simulation environment infesting orchards, while orchard managers respond by administering insecticide according to analyst-selected behavior profiles and management responses may depend on prior invasion states. Dispersal data is generated in each simulation and used to calculate spread rate via a set of estimators selected for their predominance in the empirical literature. Spread rate is a mechanistic, emergent phenomenon measured at the population level caused by a suite of latent biological, environmental, and anthropogenic. I test the effectiveness of orchard behavior profiles on invasion suppression and evaluate the robustness of the estimators given orchard responses. I find that allowing growers to use future expectations of spread in management decisions leads to reduced spread rates. Acting in a preventative manner by applying insecticide before insects are actually present, orchards are able to lower spread rates more than by reactive behavior alone. Spread rates are highly sensitive to spatial configuration. Spatial configuration is hardly a random process, consisting of many latent factors often not accounted for in spread rate estimation. Not considering these factors may lead to an omitted variables bias and skew estimation results. The ability of spread rate estimators to predict future spread varies considerably between estimators, and with spatial configuration, invader biological parameters, and orchard behavior profile. The model suggests that understanding the latent factors inherent to dispersal is important for selecting phenomenological models of spread and interpreting estimation results. This indicates a need for caution when evaluating spread. Although standard practice, current empirical estimators may both over- and underestimate spread rate in the simulation.
Date Created
2012
Agent