Using Machine Learning to Predict Performance in the NFL

In the last two decades, fantasy sports have grown massively in popularity. Fantasy football in particular is the most popular fantasy sport in the United States. People spend hours upon hours every year building, researching, and perfecting their teams to compete with others for money or bragging rights. One problem, however, is that National Football League (NFL) players are human and will not perform the same as they did last week or last season. Because of this, there is a need to create a machine learning model to help predict when players will have a tough game or when they can perform above average. This report discusses the history and science of fantasy football, gathering large amounts of player data, manipulating the information to create more insightful data points, creating a machine learning model, and how to use this tool in a real-world situation. The initial model created significantly accurate predictions for quarterbacks and running backs but not receivers and tight ends. Improvements significantly increased the accuracy by reducing the mean average error to below one for all positions, resulting in a successful model for all four positions.