A Study on the Relationship between Data Leakage and Overoptimistic Estimates of the Performance of Machine Learning Models

In this thesis, six experiments which were computer simulations were conducted in order to replicate the negative association between sample size and accuracy that is repeatedly found in ML literature by accounting for data leakage and publication bias. The reason why it is critical to understand why this negative association is occurring is that in published studies, there have been multiple reports that the accuracies in ML models are overoptimistic leading to cases where the results are irreproducible despite conducting multiple trials and experiments. Additionally, after replicating the negative association between sample size and accuracy, parametric curves (learning curves with the parametric function) were fitted along the empirical learning curves in order to evaluate the performance. It was found that there is a significant variance in accuracies when the sample size is small, but little to no variation when the sample size is large. In other words, the empirical learning curves with data leakage and publication bias were able to achieve the same accuracy as the learning curve without data leakage at a large sample size.