Advancing Transportation Climate Vulnerability Assessment Across Infrastructure and Travel Behavior

Infrastructure systems are facing non-stationary challenges that stem from climate change and the increasingly complex interactions between the social, ecological, and technological systems (SETSs). It is crucial for transportation infrastructures—which enable residents to access opportunities and foster prosperity, quality of life, and social connections—to be resilient under these non-stationary challenges. Vulnerability assessment (VA) examines the potential consequences a system is likely to experience due to exposure to perturbation or stressors and lack of the capacity to adapt. Post-fire debris flow and heat represent particularly challenging problems for infrastructure and users in the arid U.S. West. Post-fire debris flow, which is manifested with heat and drought, produces powerful runoff threatening physical transportation infrastructures. And heat waves have devastating health effects on transportation infrastructure users, including increased mortality rates. VA anticipates the potential consequences of these perturbations and enables infrastructure stakeholders to improve the system's resilience. The current transportation climate VA—which only considers a single direct climate stressor on the infrastructure—falls short of addressing the wildfire and heat challenges. This work proposes advanced transportation climate VA methods to address the complex and multiple climate stressors and the vulnerability of infrastructure users. Two specific regions were chosen to carry out the progressive transportation climate VA: 1) the California transportation networks’ vulnerability to post-fire debris flows, and 2) the transportation infrastructure user’s vulnerability to heat exposure in Phoenix.