A Simulation Study Assessing Mediator to Outcome Confounding Bias in Mediation Analysis

This project studied a four-variable single mediator model, a single mediator model: X (independent variable) to M (mediator) to Y (dependent variable), and a confounder (U) that influences M and Y. Confounding represents a threat to the causal interpretation in mediation analysis. For instance, if X represents random assignment to control and treatment conditions, the effect of X on M and the effect of X on Y have a causal interpretation under certain reasonable assumptions. However, the randomization of X does not allow for a causal interpretation of the M to Y effect unless certain confounding assumptions are satisfied. The aim of this project was to develop a significance test and an effect size comparison for two sensitivity to confounding analyses methods: Left Out Variables Error (L.O.V.E.) and the correlated residuals method. Further, the project assessed the accuracy of the methods for identifying confounding bias by simulating data with and without confounding bias.