A Graph-Based Machine Learning Approach to Realistic Traffic Volume Generation

In this work, we explore the potential for realistic and accurate generation of hourly traffic volume with machine learning (ML), using the ground-truth data of Manhattan road segments collected by the New York State Department of Transportation (NYSDOT). Specifically, we address the following question– can we develop a ML algorithm that generalizes the existing NYSDOT data to all road segments in Manhattan?– by introducing a supervised learning task of multi-output regression, where ML algorithms use road segment attributes to predict hourly traffic volume. We consider four ML algorithms– K-Nearest Neighbors, Decision Tree, Random Forest, and Neural Network– and hyperparameter tune by evaluating the performances of each algorithm with 10-fold cross validation. Ultimately, we conclude that neural networks are the best-performing models and require the least amount of testing time. Lastly, we provide insight into the quantification of “trustworthiness” in a model, followed by brief discussions on interpreting model performance, suggesting potential project improvements, and identifying the biggest takeaways. Overall, we hope our work can serve as an effective baseline for realistic traffic volume generation, and open new directions in the processes of supervised dataset generation and ML algorithm design.