The potential for quagga mussel survival in Canyon Lake

Quagga mussels are an aquatic invasive species capable of causing economic and ecological damage. Despite the quagga mussels’ ability to rapidly spread, two watersheds, the Salt River system and the Verde River system of Arizona, both had no quagga mussel detections for 8 years. The main factor thought to deter quagga mussels was the stratification of the two watersheds during the summer, resulting in high temperatures in the epilimnion and low dissolved oxygen in the hypolimnion. In 2015, Canyon Lake, a reservoir of the Salt River watershed, tested positive for quagga mussel veligers. In this study, I used Landsat 7 and Landsat 8 satellite data to determine if changes in the surface temperature have caused a change to the reservoir allowing quagga mussel contamination. I used a location in the center of the lake with a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 0.80 and a correlation coefficient (R^2) of 0.82, but I did not detect any significant variations in surface temperatures from recent years. I also measured 21 locations on Canyon Lake to determine if the locations in Canyon Lake were able to harbor quagga mussels. I found that summer stratification caused hypolimnion dissolved oxygen levels to drop well below the quagga mussel threshold of 2mg/L. Surface temperatures, however were not high enough throughout the lake to prevent quagga mussels from inhabiting the epilimnion. It is likely that a lack of substrate in the epilimnion have forced any quagga mussel inhabitants in Canyon Lake to specific locations that were not necessarily near the point of quagga veliger detection sampling. The research suggests that while Canyon Lake may have been difficult for quagga mussels to infest, once they become established in the proper locations, where they can survive through the summer, quagga mussels are likely to become more prevalent.