Evaluation of a Guided Machine Learning Approach for Pharmacokinetic Modeling

A medical control system, a real-time controller, uses a predictive model of human physiology for estimation and controlling of drug concentration in the human body. Artificial Pancreas (AP) is an example of the control system which regulates blood glucose in T1D patients. The predictive model in the control system such as Bergman Minimal Model (BMM) is based on physiological modeling technique which separates the body into the number of anatomical compartments and each compartment's effect on body system is determined by their physiological parameters. These models are less accurate due to unaccounted physiological factors effecting target values. Estimation of a large number of physiological parameters through optimization algorithm is computationally expensive and stuck in local minima. This work evaluates a machine learning(ML) framework which has an ML model guided through physiological models. A support vector regression model guided through modified BMM is implemented for estimation of blood glucose levels. Physical activity and Endogenous glucose production are key factors that contribute in the increased hypoglycemia events thus, this work modifies Bergman Minimal Model ( Bergman et al. 1981) for more accurate estimation of blood glucose levels. Results show that the SVR outperformed BMM by 0.164 average RMSE for 7 different patients in the free-living scenario. This computationally inexpensive data driven model can potentially learn parameters more accurately with time. In conclusion, advised prediction model is promising in modeling the physiology elements in living systems.