A spatial statistical framework for evaluating landscape pattern and its impacts on the urban thermal environment

Urban growth, from regional sprawl to global urbanization, is the most rapid, drastic, and irreversible form of human modification to the natural environment. Extensive land cover modifications during urban growth have altered the local energy balance, causing the city warmer than its surrounding rural environment, a phenomenon known as an urban heat island (UHI). How are the seasonal and diurnal surface temperatures related to the land surface characteristics, and what land cover types and/or patterns are desirable for ameliorating climate in a fast growing desert city? This dissertation scrutinizes these questions and seeks to address them using a combination of satellite remote sensing, geographical information science, and spatial statistical modeling techniques.

This dissertation includes two main parts. The first part proposes to employ the continuous, pixel-based landscape gradient models in comparison to the discrete, patch-based mosaic models and evaluates model efficiency in two empirical contexts: urban landscape pattern mapping and land cover dynamics monitoring. The second part formalizes a novel statistical model called spatially filtered ridge regression (SFRR) that ensures accurate and stable statistical estimation despite the existence of multicollinearity and the inherent spatial effect.

Results highlight the strong potential of local indicators of spatial dependence in landscape pattern mapping across various geographical scales. This is based on evidence from a sequence of exploratory comparative analyses and a time series study of land cover dynamics over Phoenix, AZ. The newly proposed SFRR method is capable of producing reliable estimates when analyzing statistical relationships involving geographic data and highly correlated predictor variables. An empirical application of the SFRR over Phoenix suggests that urban cooling can be achieved not only by altering the land cover abundance, but also by optimizing the spatial arrangements of urban land cover features. Considering the limited water supply, rapid urban expansion, and the continuously warming climate, judicious design and planning of urban land cover features is of increasing importance for conserving resources and enhancing quality of life.