Research on the Liquidity of China Treasury Futures Market

Given the "New Nine Measures" for capital market reform, a policy document issued by the State Council of China, the development of markets for interest rate derivatives, such as treasury futures, becomes an increasingly important task. Several shortcomings of the existing treasury futures market have been noted: including low market liquidity, singular investor composition, restrict contract terms, and low hedging demand.

This study contributes to a better understanding of the treasury futures market by analyzing changes in China treasury futures market regulations and their impact on market liquidity of treasury futures. Found that compared with the mature market, China treasury futures market exists liquidity shortage, the trading system, market structure and the division of regulatory are factors which influence the liquidity of China treasury futures market.

This study found that reducing transaction costs for further optimization of the width and depth of China treasury futures market are not obvious by using quantitative analysis method, expanding the smallest change price can optimize the market depth, reducing transaction costs and expanding smallest change price can optimize the immediacy, volume and hosting amount. In addition, the bond market will also influence the treasury futures market, the price fluctuations and the morphology of the yield curve of bond market have significant influence on width, depth and holdings of market.

The system of China treasury futures market needs to be optimized by expanding the smallest change price and reducing transaction costs. The market structure needs to be optimized by establishing unified bond market and enriching investor structure.

These findings have significant theoretical and practical implications. The study also provides policy recommendations for the design and establishment of treasury futures market to the regulatory agencies.