Impact of forecasted freight trends on highway pavement infrastructure

The major challenge for any pavement is the freight transport carried by the structure. This challenge is expected to increase in the coming years as freight movements are projected to grow and because these movements account for most of the load related distresses for the pavement. Substantial effort has been devoted to identifying the impacts of these future national freight trends with respect to the environment, economic growth, congestion, and reliability. These are all important aspects relating to the freight question, but an equally important and often overlooked aspect of this issue involves the impact of freight trends on the physical infrastructure. This study analyzes the impact of future freight traffic trends on 26 major interstates representing 68% of the total system mileage and carrying 80% of the total national roadway freight. The pavement segments were analyzed using the Mechanistic Empirical Pavement Design Guide software after collecting the relevant traffic, climate, structural, and material properties. Comparisons were drawn between the expected pavement performance using current design standards for traffic growth and performance predictions that incorporated more detailed freight projections which themselves considered job growth and six key drivers of freight movement. The differences in the resultant performance were used to generate maps that provide a bird’s eye view of locations that are especially vulnerable to future trends in freight movement. The analysis shows that the areas of greatest vulnerability include segments that are directly linked to the busiest ports, and surprisingly those from Atlantic and Central states that provide long distance connectivity, but do not currently carry the highest traffic volumes.