Measuring the success of a transportation project: Loop 202 (Red Mountain Freeway) case study

Measuring the success of a transportation project as it is envisioned in the Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) and is detailed in an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) is not part of any current planning process, for a post construction analysis may have political consequences for the project participants, would incur additional costs, and may be difficult to define in terms of scope. With local, state and federal budgets shrinking, funding sources are demanding that the performance of a project be evaluated and project stakeholders be held accountable. The Transportation Research Board (TRB) developed a framework that allows transportation agencies to customize their reporting so that a project's performance can be measured. In the case of the Red Mountain Freeway, the selected performance measure allows for comparing the population forecasts, the traffic volumes, and the project costs defined in the final EIS to actual population growth, actual average annual daily traffic (ADT), and actual project costs obtained from census data, the City of Mesa, and contractor bids, respectively. The results show that population projections for both Maricopa County and the City of Mesa are within less than half a percent of the actual annual population growth. The traffic analysis proved more difficult due to inconsistencies within the EIS documents, variations in the local arterials used to produce traffic volume, and in the projection time-spans. The comparison for the total increase in traffic volume generated a difference of 11.34 percent and 89.30 percent. An adjusted traffic volume equal to all local arterials and US 60 resulted in a difference of 40 percent between the projected and actual ADT values. As for the project cost comparison, not only were the costs within the individual documents inconsistent, but they were underestimated by as much as 75 percent. Evaluating the goals as described in an EIS document using the performance measure guidelines provided by the TRB may provide the tool that can help promote conflict resolution for political issues that arise, streamline the planning process, and measure the performance of the transportation system, so that lessons learned can be applied to future projects.