Gridiron Arbitrage: What Financial Markets Can Teach Us About Fantasy Football

Fantasy football is a game derived from America’s National Football League and involves players managing “teams” of fantasy football players. Given that the game contains elements of value, risk, and reward, this project aims to draw parallels between fantasy football and Modern Portfolio Theory, a well-regarded theory describing portfolio construction and performance in financial markets. This hypothesis is tested through a simulation of the 2019 – 2020 fantasy football season using this strategy; a sample team is generated, the team is adjusted as per the rules outlined in the risk-reducing and value-preserving strategy, and the results are tabulated per the team’s fantasy football scoring output. The results show that a volatility-reducing strategy fails to achieve a consistent, good performance from the fantasy team portfolio, but can result in a relatively successful season. Key issues to consider in this outcome are the low volume of data, the high volatility and situational nature of the underlying statistics from which fantasy scoring is derived, and the inefficiency of financial markets. The value of this research demonstrates that strict algorithmic, numerical, or technical methods are insufficient to succeed in fantasy football, and that information availability, access, and speed, along with a significant allotment of luck, are needed to succeed. The implication for the financial field is that the rules and theories formulated for it are based on certain crucial assumptions such as a centralized supply and demand for securities, an objective theory of value, and efficiency of markets, which cannot be translated directly to fantasy football.