Advanced scenario analysis: tools for enhancing social resiliency : evaluating advanced scenario analysis in regional growth visioning

The uncertainty of change inherent in issues such as climate change and regional growth has created a significant challenge for public decision makers trying to decide what adaptation actions are needed to respond to these possible changes. This challenge threatens the resiliency and thus the long term sustainability of our social-ecological systems. Using an empirical embedded case study approach to explore the application of advanced scenario analysis methods to regional growth visioning projects in two regions, this dissertation provides empirical evidence that for issues with high uncertainty, advanced scenario planning (ASP) methods are effective tools for helping decision makers to anticipate and prepare to adapt to change.