Environmental Drivers of Vegetative and Flowering Phenology in Drylands

Flowering phenology offers a sensitive and reliable biological indicator of climate change because plants use climatic and other environmental cues to initiate flower production. Drylands are the largest terrestrial biome, but with unpredictable precipitation patterns and infertile soils, they are particularly vulnerable to climate change. There is a need to increase our comprehension of how dryland plants might respond and adapt to environmental changes. I conducted a meta-analysis on the flowering phenology of dryland plants and showed that some species responded to climate change through accelerated flowering, while others delayed their flowering dates. Dryland plants advanced their mean flowering dates by 2.12 days decade-1, 2.83 days °C-1 and 2.91 days mm-1, respectively, responding to time series, temperature, and precipitation. Flowering phenology responses varied across taxonomic and functional groups, with the grass family Poaceae (-3.91 days decade1) and bulb forming Amaryllidaceae (-0.82 days decade1) showing the highest and lowest time series responses respectively, while Brassicaceae was not responsive. Analysis from herbarium specimens collected across Namibian drylands, spanning 26 species and six families, revealed that plants in hyper-arid to arid regions have lower phenological sensitivity to temperature (-9 days °C-1) and greater phenological responsiveness to precipitation (-0.56 days mm-1) than those in arid to semi-arid regions (-17 days °C-1, -0.35 days mm-1). The flowering phenology of serotinous plants showed greater sensitivity to both temperature and precipitation than that of non-serotinous plants. I used rainout shelters to reduce rainfall in a field experiment and showed that drought treatment advanced the vegetative and reproductive phenology of Cleome gynandra, a highly nutritional and medicinal semi-wild vegetable species. The peak leaf length date, peak number of leaves date, and peak flowering date of Cleome gynandra advanced by six, 10 and seven days, respectively. Lastly, I simulated drought and flood in a greenhouse experiment and found that flooding conditions resulted in higher germination percentage of C. gynandra than drought. My study found that the vegetative, and flowering phenology of dryland plants is responsive to climate change, with differential responses across taxonomic and functional groups, and aridity zones, which could alter the structure and function of these systems.