Assessing the Rise, Current Impact, and the Future of the Mobile Quarterback Offense in the National Football League

An examination upon the historical evolution of the quarterback reveals that there were three foundational cycles leading up to 2007 which established the model for the mobile quarterback in the NFL. These were especially marked by exceptional quarterbacks breaking molds and pioneering African American quarterbacks overcoming racial stigma. Since 2007, there has been a steady trend of mobile quarterbacks replacing pocket passers, especially among playoff teams. Using k-means clustering, three different categories of quarterbacks were established: pocket passers, scramblers, and dual-threats. After evaluating various player metrics describing quarterback mobility, using yards per game, run-to-pass ratio, scramble rate, and designed run rate on third down produced the best model. This yielded an accurate prediction of covariance and a good overall fit. Teams with dual-threat quarterbacks had more success than other quarterback types on third-and-medium for dropbacks, third-and-long for designed runs, and explosive plays (plays which gain 20+ yards) on designed runs, passes, and quarterback scrambles. An examination into the schematic tendencies using film reveals that mobile quarterbacks allow the offense to have more freedom in its play calling and reduces the margin of error for defenses. Alongside the NFL’s increased focus on the concept of positionless football, this provides the framework for what this thesis calls the “Slashback Offense,” in which the offense utilizes a young, athletic quarterback in multiple positions in conjunction with a mobile starting quarterback. This can enhance option plays, establish the threat of another passer, and reduce the physical burden on the starting quarterback.