Full metadata
Title
Consequences of short term mobility across heterogeneous risk environments: the 2014 west African Ebola outbreak
Description
In this dissertation the potential impact of some social, cultural and economic factors on
Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) dynamics and control are studied. In Chapter two, the inability
to detect and isolate a large fraction of EVD-infected individuals before symptoms onset is
addressed. A mathematical model, calibrated with data from the 2014 West African outbreak,
is used to show the dynamics of EVD control under various quarantine and isolation
effectiveness regimes. It is shown that in order to make a difference it must reach a high
proportion of the infected population. The effect of EVD-dead bodies has been incorporated
in the quarantine effectiveness. In Chapter four, the potential impact of differential
risk is assessed. A two-patch model without explicitly incorporate quarantine is used to
assess the impact of mobility on communities at risk of EVD. It is shown that the
overall EVD burden may lessen when mobility in this artificial high-low risk society is allowed.
The cost that individuals in the low-risk patch must pay, as measured by secondary
cases is highlighted. In Chapter five a model explicitly incorporating patch-specific quarantine
levels is used to show that quarantine a large enough proportion of the population
under effective isolation leads to a measurable reduction of secondary cases in the presence
of mobility. It is shown that sharing limited resources can improve the effectiveness of
EVD effective control in the two-patch high-low risk system. Identifying the conditions
under which the low-risk community would be willing to accept the increases in EVD risk,
needed to reduce the total number of secondary cases in a community composed of two
patches with highly differentiated risks has not been addressed. In summary, this dissertation
looks at EVD dynamics within an idealized highly polarized world where resources
are primarily in the hands of a low-risk community – a community of lower density, higher
levels of education and reasonable health services – that shares a “border” with a high-risk
community that lacks minimal resources to survive an EVD outbreak.
Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) dynamics and control are studied. In Chapter two, the inability
to detect and isolate a large fraction of EVD-infected individuals before symptoms onset is
addressed. A mathematical model, calibrated with data from the 2014 West African outbreak,
is used to show the dynamics of EVD control under various quarantine and isolation
effectiveness regimes. It is shown that in order to make a difference it must reach a high
proportion of the infected population. The effect of EVD-dead bodies has been incorporated
in the quarantine effectiveness. In Chapter four, the potential impact of differential
risk is assessed. A two-patch model without explicitly incorporate quarantine is used to
assess the impact of mobility on communities at risk of EVD. It is shown that the
overall EVD burden may lessen when mobility in this artificial high-low risk society is allowed.
The cost that individuals in the low-risk patch must pay, as measured by secondary
cases is highlighted. In Chapter five a model explicitly incorporating patch-specific quarantine
levels is used to show that quarantine a large enough proportion of the population
under effective isolation leads to a measurable reduction of secondary cases in the presence
of mobility. It is shown that sharing limited resources can improve the effectiveness of
EVD effective control in the two-patch high-low risk system. Identifying the conditions
under which the low-risk community would be willing to accept the increases in EVD risk,
needed to reduce the total number of secondary cases in a community composed of two
patches with highly differentiated risks has not been addressed. In summary, this dissertation
looks at EVD dynamics within an idealized highly polarized world where resources
are primarily in the hands of a low-risk community – a community of lower density, higher
levels of education and reasonable health services – that shares a “border” with a high-risk
community that lacks minimal resources to survive an EVD outbreak.
Date Created
2018
Contributors
- Espinoza Cortes, Baltazar (Author)
- Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Thesis advisor)
- Kang, Yun (Committee member)
- Safan, Muntaser (Committee member)
- Arizona State University (Publisher)
Topical Subject
- Epidemiology
- Applied Mathematics
- Ebola virus disease
- Final size relation
- Mathematical models
- mobility
- Quarantine
- Residence times
- Ebola virus disease--Transmission--Africa, West--Mathematical models.
- Ebola virus disease
- Ebola virus disease--Social aspects--Africa, West--Mathematical models.
- Ebola virus disease
Resource Type
Extent
x, 90 pages : illustrations
Language
eng
Copyright Statement
In Copyright
Primary Member of
Peer-reviewed
No
Open Access
No
Handle
https://hdl.handle.net/2286/R.I.49363
Statement of Responsibility
by Baltazar Espinoza Cortes
Description Source
Retrieved on July 11, 2018
Level of coding
full
Note
thesis
Partial requirement for: Ph.D., Arizona State University, 2018
bibliography
Includes bibliographical references (pages 85-90)
Field of study: Applied mathematics
System Created
- 2018-06-01 08:10:58
System Modified
- 2021-08-26 09:47:01
- 3 years 3 months ago
Additional Formats