An Examination of Downtown Phoenix Business Development 2004-2013 in Context of Light Rail and Arizona State University

This report examines the transformation of downtown Phoenix businesses between 2004 and 2013. The main factors at play during that time period are the introduction of Arizona State University to the downtown area, and the construction of Valley Metro Light Rail and the bulk of data was gleaned from US Census and City of Phoenix reports. During the period of the study, downtown Phoenix saw a shift toward more restaurants and arts and away from professional, technical and financial services. Food services jumped from eight to 12 percent of total businesses, while professional services declined from 32 to 29 percent. Certain business sectors were affected by the Recession, while others were seemingly impervious to the economic downturn. Of the sectors that saw the most growth through the period, restaurants were the most highly correlated with growth in ASU enrollment at 0.95 R. Meanwhile, the total number of businesses downtown decreased slightly, representing a negative correlation with ASU. However, the decline was so slight that ASU growth fails to account for the stagnation. Light rail ridership in the downtown area is not, on its own, highly correlated with downtown business growth. Only the Van Buren Junction, which includes both the Central and 1st Avenue stops, shows the same degree of correlation with businesses as ASU enrollment. Growth in ridership at the Van Buren Junction represents the vast majority of light rail growth in the area, and it is almost entirely linked to the spike in ASU enrollment. This suggests that ASU enrollment is a much more significant driver of business transformation than light rail. Neither ASU nor light rail can explain the totality of every shift in the downtown business landscape, but in certain sectors, namely restaurants and the arts, the extremely high correlations suggest a near indisputable connection. Because this system does not allow for the upload of excel, appendixes are available at: https://drive.google.com/folderview?id=0B6y9cOb9sqVnMHdzalNOSmxuZFE&usp=sharing